NFL Week 4 Team Efficiency Rankings

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The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability.

The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.

RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK

1
CHI
-
0.72
0.58
1
8

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2
SD
-
0.71
0.55
2
11

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3
DAL
-
0.67
0.64
10
1

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4
KC
-
0.64
0.56
15
3

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5
GB
-
0.63
0.57
5
4

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6
SEA
-
0.62
0.57
19
2

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7
HOU
-
0.62
0.62
6
19

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8
IND
-
0.61
0.57
7
12

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9
PIT
-
0.58
0.43
16
5

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10
WAS
-
0.58
0.51
11
14

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11
DEN
-
0.56
0.54
13
26

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12
PHI
-
0.55
0.49
17
10

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13
NYG
-
0.54
0.49
4
18

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14
NYJ
-
0.53
0.51
8
9

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15
BAL
-
0.52
0.50
24
6

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16
NE
-
0.52
0.46
3
32

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17
CLE
-
0.52
0.53
9
25

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18
MIA
-
0.50
0.46
18
21

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19
TEN
-
0.49
0.47
12
7

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20
DET
-
0.45
0.57
22
22

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21
SF
-
0.45
0.55
25
24

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22
CIN
-
0.44
0.47
27
15

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23
MIN
-
0.43
0.45
28
13

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24
TB
-
0.43
0.49
20
30

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25
BUF
-
0.42
0.55
31
16

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26
NO
-
0.40
0.42
21
31

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27
JAC
-
0.39
0.61
29
28

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28
ATL
-
0.37
0.42
14
29

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29
CAR
-
0.36
0.47
32
17

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30
OAK
-
0.29
0.34
23
20

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31
ARI
-
0.27
0.30
26
23

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32
STL
-
0.25
0.38
30
27

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Raw efficiency stats for each team are listed below.

TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE

ARI
4.9
5.8
4.0
1.7
5.5
4.3
3.3
0.72

ATL
6.1
4.0
0.9
0.5
6.9
5.1
6.2
0.35

BAL
5.7
3.1
4.6
0.7
4.1
4.7
0.0
0.39

BUF
4.8
4.2
5.0
0.0
7.1
4.2
0.0
0.32

CAR
4.6
3.6
6.2
3.8
6.6
3.1
5.4
0.40

CHI
8.4
3.2
2.2
0.0
6.3
2.1
3.1
0.42

CIN
5.5
3.2
2.5
1.8
5.4
4.5
4.7
0.34

CLE
6.2
4.5
3.2
2.9
6.5
3.8
3.4
0.51

DAL
7.2
3.5
1.6
0.0
6.5
3.9
2.2
0.50

DEN
8.1
2.5
1.6
1.2
7.1
3.7
3.0
0.43

DET
5.6
3.0
4.1
0.7
7.0
5.0
2.9
0.40

GB
6.8
3.8
2.9
0.7
4.7
5.0
3.8
0.63

HOU
7.0
5.0
4.0
0.6
8.5
3.0
0.0
0.33

IND
7.7
3.3
0.0
1.8
6.7
5.0
3.1
0.39

JAC
4.9
3.7
5.4
1.3
8.7
4.6
3.2
0.40

KC
6.1
4.6
3.9
0.0
6.0
3.2
1.8
0.28

MIA
6.2
3.8
1.1
2.0
5.6
4.5
3.1
0.22

MIN
5.4
5.0
6.2
0.7
5.8
3.6
2.1
0.57

NE
7.4
4.6
2.0
0.0
6.9
4.4
2.8
0.38

NO
7.0
2.6
1.8
0.6
7.1
4.4
3.4
0.30

NYG
7.0
4.3
5.9
1.3
6.1
3.8
3.9
0.54

NYJ
6.1
4.9
0.0
0.8
6.6
2.4
3.4
0.72

OAK
5.2
4.5
3.7
1.2
5.1
4.6
2.9
0.77

PHI
6.1
6.0
0.0
0.7
4.7
4.1
4.7
0.61

PIT
6.2
4.7
5.0
2.1
5.2
2.6
4.3
0.22

SD
8.1
4.4
3.3
1.9
5.3
3.9
5.2
0.36

SF
5.5
3.9
4.2
0.0
7.2
3.9
2.3
0.43

SEA
6.3
4.0
5.6
0.0
6.8
2.6
3.0
0.35

STL
4.9
3.6
4.3
0.0
6.3
5.1
2.7
0.58

TB
5.9
3.4
2.2
0.7
6.6
4.8
7.1
0.36

TEN
5.9
4.0
4.4
1.3
4.8
4.4
2.9
0.63

WAS
7.4
3.9
1.0
0.8
6.8
3.5
1.5
0.42

Avg
6.3
4.0
3.2
1.0
6.3
4.0
3.2
0.45

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