NFL: Packers-Vikings, Raiders-Steelers, Pats-Colts, Broncos-Chargers

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This week's edition of The Weekly League features:

1. Previews of the Green Bay-Minnesota, Oakland-Pittsburgh, Indianapolis-New England, and Denver-San Diego games.

2. Responses to three readers on matters sundry.


3. Tons of whimsy.

The Four Factors represent each team's raw performance in four important categories (pass and rush efficiency, pass and rush efficiency against) relative to league average (where 100 is league average and anything above is good).

Generic Win Probability (GWP) is the probability a team would beat the league-average team at a neutral site. It can be found for all teams here. Game Probability (PROB) is each respective team's chance of winning this particular contest. Those numbers (along with methodology) can be found here.

Finally, a glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.

Notes to Three Readers
To the Reader Who Asked for Fewer NFC East Games
Your wish is my command. Or, at least, this wish is my command. Other wishes, probably not so much.

To the Reader Who Asked Why the Unlucky Teams on the GWP Table Are Green
I'm drawn towards -- and, I'm guessing, many readers here are drawn towards -- teams that are better than public perception might suggest. The green -- as opposed to the red -- reflects bad luck as a "virtue."

To the Reader Who Asked About My Impressive Jawline, Whether It's Natural
Yes. It is. Cento per cento.

Green Bay at Minnesota | Sunday, November 21 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors

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• This is what you might call "a clash of NFC North foes."
• So that's one thing.
• But another thing is: have you ever frigging seen Clay Matthews play?
• He's 24th among linebackers in +WPA and sixth in EPA/G.
• But he's more like first or second overall in the category of "being scary."

Oakland at Pittsburgh | Sunday, November 21 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors

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• This game became infinity-times more interesting on Wednesday when I traded for Rashard Mendenhall in a fantasy league.
• The full trade was Aaron Rodgers, Vernon Davis, and Pierre Thomas for Rashard Mendenhall, Zach Miller (Oakland), and Ryan Torain.
• I picked Troy Smith up, is why I felt comfortable giving away Rodgers.
• Feel free to comment upon this trade.
• I'll hang up and listen.

Indianapolis at New England | Sunday, November 21 | 4:15pm ET
Four Factors

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• An unexpected thing is how the Colts have the 24th-ranked offense by GWP.
• It's even more surprising on account of they rank in the top half of the league in pass efficiency, offensive EPA -- all that junk.
• So I says to our host Brian Burke, I says: "What gives, compadre?"
• He says back to me, he says: "Their ORANK is really hurt because of their average opponent defensive strength. HOU x 2, JAC, WAS, DEN. 24th probably means they're at the bottom end of a pack of roughly equally average offenses."
• And he adds: "Please don't call me compadre."

Denver at San Diego | Monday, November 22 | 8:30pm ET
Four Factors

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• You're never gonna guess who leads the NFL in pass efficiency.
• Actually, you probably will.
• It's San Diego.
• But you're never gonna guess who's second.
• Denver! At 7.2 yards per pass!

GWP Wins and Luck
Here's the table, through Week Ten and sans comment, of GWP wins and losses as compared to actual wins and losses.

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