New England's offense claims the number one spot this week, but their early season defensive woes are holding them back.

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability.

The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort.

RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK

1
SD
1
0.83
0.44
2
1

2
NYG
4
0.73
0.47
9
3

3
PIT
3
0.72
0.51
7
2

4
GB
2
0.72
0.49
5
8

5
NE
5
0.72
0.56
1
23

6
PHI
6
0.68
0.51
3
9

7
MIA
7
0.63
0.56
20
7

8
BAL
8
0.62
0.51
11
10

9
IND
9
0.60
0.55
14
11

10
HOU
14
0.58
0.57
4
27

11
NYJ
12
0.57
0.55
26
4

12
TEN
16
0.55
0.55
22
5

13
KC
11
0.54
0.47
15
14

14
MIN
10
0.53
0.54
21
12

15
CHI
13
0.53
0.51
28
6

16
DAL
17
0.51
0.56
6
28

17
NO
15
0.51
0.39
8
20

18
CLE
18
0.47
0.50
24
15

19
BUF
19
0.44
0.55
25
24

20
ATL
20
0.43
0.47
13
25

21
TB
22
0.43
0.41
10
26

22
WAS
21
0.42
0.55
17
30

23
SF
25
0.40
0.41
18
16

24
OAK
27
0.40
0.50
16
17

25
CIN
23
0.38
0.55
29
22

26
DET
28
0.36
0.57
27
19

27
DEN
24
0.34
0.47
12
31

28
JAC
26
0.34
0.56
19
32

29
SEA
29
0.30
0.43
23
29

30
STL
30
0.27
0.39
30
18

31
CAR
31
0.23
0.46
32
13

32
ARI
32
0.20
0.43
31
21

And here are each team's efficiency stats.

TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE

ARI
4.8
4.5
3.6
1.1
6.5
4.4
3.3
0.45

ATL
6.1
4.0
1.7
0.1
6.5
4.6
3.8
0.32

BAL
6.4
3.6
1.8
0.7
5.8
4.1
2.7
0.33

BUF
5.7
4.4
3.0
1.3
6.3
4.7
2.3
0.32

CAR
4.4
4.3
4.7
2.3
6.0
4.1
3.8
0.42

CHI
5.9
3.8
4.5
0.2
5.7
3.7
3.3
0.39

CIN
5.6
3.6
3.6
1.2
6.5
4.6
3.3
0.34

CLE
5.9
4.1
3.2
1.9
6.3
4.1
4.1
0.36

DAL
6.9
4.0
3.6
0.4
7.2
4.3
3.4
0.43

DEN
6.4
3.8
1.8
1.6
7.0
4.5
1.5
0.46

DET
5.6
3.8
2.8
0.9
6.4
4.5
2.7
0.52

GB
7.0
4.0
2.5
0.5
5.5
4.5
4.2
0.34

HOU
6.7
4.8
2.2
0.6
7.4
3.8
2.1
0.33

IND
6.8
3.4
2.6
0.6
6.0
4.8
2.2
0.34

JAC
6.0
4.8
4.6
0.9
7.8
4.4
3.0
0.34

KC
6.1
4.8
1.1
0.6
6.0
4.3
2.1
0.36

MIA
6.1
3.7
3.9
1.5
5.7
3.6
2.4
0.28

MIN
6.0
4.4
5.3
0.8
6.1
3.9
2.8
0.39

NE
7.3
4.2
1.2
0.2
6.6
4.2
4.0
0.36

NO
6.8
4.1
3.4
0.7
5.8
4.3
2.2
0.41

NYG
6.8
4.9
4.3
1.4
5.2
4.0
3.3
0.41

NYJ
5.7
4.4
2.7
1.3
5.7
3.4
1.6
0.50

OAK
6.0
4.8
3.5
1.1
6.2
4.6
2.1
0.61

PHI
6.9
5.3
1.8
0.7
6.1
4.1
5.0
0.59

PIT
6.8
4.1
2.4
1.1
5.6
2.9
3.4
0.50

SD
7.9
4.1
2.5
1.3
5.1
3.7
3.2
0.38

SF
6.2
4.2
3.2
0.8
6.4
3.7
3.0
0.48

SEA
6.0
3.7
4.0
0.5
6.7
4.1
2.1
0.44

STL
5.4
3.8
2.5
0.3
5.9
4.5
2.5
0.43

TB
6.2
4.3
1.5
1.0
6.1
4.7
4.3
0.44

TEN
6.1
4.4
3.2
0.9
6.0
4.0
3.0
0.50

WAS
6.1
4.3
3.1
1.0
6.8
4.9
2.3
0.33

Avg
6.2
4.2
3.0
0.9
6.2
4.2
3.0
0.41

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