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NFL Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 12 - Opposing Views

NFL Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 12

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There's a ranking I never thought I'd see. Peyton Manning's offense is ranked 21st in the league in efficiency. Last week, I got a few questions about how that could be, and the answer is opponent strength.

The Colts have put up some slightly above average passing numbers, but they've been against some very weak defenses, including HOU twice, JAC, WAS, and DEN. Even NE's defense is ranked 23rd, giving up 7.0 net yards per pass attempt. 

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort.

RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK

1
SD
1
0.82
0.41
1
2

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2
PIT
2
0.78
0.52
4
1

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3
GB
4
0.74
0.53
5
8

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4
PHI
5
0.71
0.51
3
5

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5
NYG
3
0.68
0.49
7
6

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6
MIA
6
0.67
0.59
17
9

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7
TEN
7
0.64
0.57
12
4

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8
BAL
8
0.61
0.51
15
13

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9
NE
12
0.59
0.60
6
23

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10
NYJ
10
0.58
0.53
20
7

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11
KC
9
0.58
0.44
14
12

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12
IND
11
0.57
0.53
21
10

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13
MIN
13
0.54
0.54
18
16

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14
CHI
19
0.54
0.49
29
3

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15
HOU
16
0.53
0.55
2
31

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16
NO
14
0.52
0.40
11
18

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17
DAL
17
0.52
0.55
8
24

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18
CLE
15
0.50
0.54
22
14

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19
ATL
20
0.47
0.48
13
22

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20
CIN
18
0.45
0.53
25
21

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21
WAS
21
0.45
0.55
16
27

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22
TB
23
0.44
0.39
10
28

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23
BUF
26
0.42
0.55
24
25

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24
JAC
27
0.38
0.57
19
30

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25
DEN
22
0.37
0.51
9
32

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26
SF
25
0.35
0.41
23
17

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27
DET
28
0.34
0.54
28
19

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28
OAK
24
0.31
0.47
27
15

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29
SEA
29
0.27
0.42
26
26

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30
STL
31
0.23
0.38
31
20

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31
CAR
30
0.22
0.48
32
11

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32
ARI
32
0.18
0.44
30
29

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And here are each team's efficiency stats.

TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE

ARI
5.0
4.3
3.7
1.0
7.0
4.4
2.8
0.45

ATL
6.2
4.1
1.3
0.2
6.7
4.3
4.3
0.32

BAL
6.6
3.7
2.1
0.9
5.9
4.2
3.0
0.36

BUF
5.7
4.5
3.3
1.1
6.4
4.7
1.3
0.32

CAR
4.4
3.8
5.0
2.7
6.0
4.0
3.4
0.42

CHI
5.7
3.8
4.9
0.2
5.4
3.5
4.0
0.41

CIN
6.0
3.8
3.3
1.4
6.4
4.4
3.5
0.37

CLE
6.1
4.1
3.1
1.7
6.5
4.0
4.0
0.39

DAL
7.0
3.7
3.8
0.2
6.9
4.3
2.5
0.49

DEN
6.8
3.3
1.5
1.4
7.4
4.4
2.0
0.48

DET
5.6
3.5
2.5
1.0
6.2
4.6
2.8
0.56

GB
6.9
4.1
2.7
0.4
5.5
4.5
4.2
0.34

HOU
6.9
4.9
2.1
0.6
7.7
4.0
1.6
0.32

IND
6.7
3.6
1.6
0.7
6.0
5.0
2.7
0.36

JAC
6.3
4.4
5.1
1.1
7.9
4.2
2.8
0.35

KC
6.5
4.8
1.4
0.6
6.0
4.1
1.8
0.37

MIA
6.3
3.8
3.7
1.4
5.8
3.9
2.3
0.28

MIN
6.2
4.5
5.1
0.8
6.4
3.7
2.5
0.41

NE
6.6
4.2
1.5
0.2
7.0
4.1
3.3
0.39

NO
6.7
3.9
3.4
0.7
5.6
4.2
1.9
0.39

NYG
6.9
4.5
4.5
1.8
5.7
3.7
3.2
0.45

NYJ
6.2
4.4
2.1
1.5
5.9
3.5
1.4
0.52

OAK
5.5
4.8
3.5
1.2
5.9
4.6
1.7
0.67

PHI
6.7
5.4
1.2
0.6
5.7
4.0
5.4
0.63

PIT
7.1
4.1
3.0
1.0
5.7
2.9
3.4
0.45

SD
8.1
4.0
2.5
1.7
5.3
3.6
2.8
0.40

SF
6.1
3.9
3.3
0.9
6.3
3.7
2.4
0.54

SEA
5.9
3.5
2.9
0.4
6.8
3.9
2.3
0.47

STL
5.1
3.8
2.4
0.2
5.9
4.2
2.2
0.50

TB
6.4
4.3
1.6
0.8
6.1
4.8
4.8
0.41

TEN
6.4
4.5
2.6
1.1
5.9
3.9
3.7
0.54

WAS
6.3
4.1
3.3
1.1
6.7
5.1
2.5
0.35

Avg
6.3
4.1
2.9
1.0
6.3
4.1
2.9
0.43

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