This is the second time in 2 weeks that I have been dead on predicting a fight. Klitschko over Mormeck, round 4, and now Marrtinez over Macklin, round 11. I was way off in Salido beating Juanma, but I think being wrong was worth that amazing brawl.
It did not take a genius to predict the relative outcome of those two matchups. It did require a bit of luck to predict exactly which round, but there was a method to the analysis. The only thing one must do is not be overcome by all the hype. You must listen to it, to gain good information, but be able to see past it. That part is difficult, indeed.
Klitschko may be going rounds lately, but that is when he is reached with something that makes him think twice. I knew Mormeck would never reach him, so that's why it was easy to pick an early KO. However, I also knew Klitschko would still be tentative early, and Mormeck would show heart in continuing... hence it not happening in the first two rounds, as it did to someone like Ray Austin. In analyzing Martinez vs. Macklin, I started by looking at Macklin's career. True, he did beat Felix Sturm, but who hasn't. If you fight Felix Sturm, he puts on his defense, pokes out a jab, and the judges he hires (he is his own promoter) score for him... surprise! So, I didn't read too much into that. The main thing that struck me was my own attitude about Martinez.
I am a big fan, but I rated him number 4 pound for pound. I do not rate him number 3, as many people do. Why do I put Donaire ahead of him? Both men train near my hometown of Los Angeles. Both are experts. Both are exciting fighters who try to take on the best in their divisions, promoters and records be damned. The difference came down to one word: domination. Donaire scarcely loses a round... Martinez always loses a few. Even when dominating and busting up Sergey Dzindziruk, he still managed to lose rounds 6 and 7. He takes his time, often does not punch in combination, and is suffers the occasional flash knockdown. None of these things happen to Donaire. Martinez also has one brutal one punch knockout in a big fight. Donaire has two.
I knew Macklin would be at his best, and not wading in to hit a defensive target like he could against Sturm. Martinez carries his hands low, and is much quicker and more powerful than Sturm. Macklin would take his time, have some offensive success, but then Martinez would take over. Martinez's takeovers happen differently each time. It was losing a couple rounds against Dzindziruk. It was cutting Pavlik's eye. It was getting hustled out of the ring against Williams. I could have never predicted it would be a flash knockdown against Macklin, but I knew at one point, something would happen to wake him up. When Martinez wakes up, he does nothing too differently. He just does it better and more often. Therefore, Macklin was never given a warning to go into a shell, or change anything about his style. By the time he would realize he was being busted up, it was too late.
There was also the presence of Buddy McGirt, who is rarely in a winning corner. No offense to Buddy, but he also pulls the trigger on stopping his fighters a bit fast. There is also the Irish skin of Macklin. There were too many ways Macklin would be saved from himself. That being said, I do believe Macklin should have been given the chance to fight round 12. If he had won it (unlikely), he would have lost a split decision, and could have remained as an "uncrowned" champion of sorts. Don't be surprised if this is the way Martinez beats the next few fighters he faces, and if those men are not big names. Only if Mosley pulls the upset over Canelo is a big name getting in the ring with "Maravilla". No matter the opponent, however, I am going to enjoy the last few years of a special kind of champion.
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