NFL Week 5 Expert Picks: Colts, Bengals, Packers and More

Week 5 in the NFL might see the last of the unbeatens (Kansas City) fall by the wayside.  Before you go out and celebrate with Mercury Morris, check out this week’s expert picks.

Indianapolis –7 over Kansas City
Kansas City has been a very fortunate team this year and it shows with their 3-0 record.  The Chiefs are yet to score on a driver of 70 yards or more and have been working on short fields throughout September.  The question the player needs to ask is “can Kansas City turnover Peyton Manning and keep him on a short field?” The answer is no. Even in their loss last week, the Colts had no issue moving the ball against Jacksonville. They had four touchdowns and two turnovers deep in the Jacksonville end. AccuScore is 57% ATS this year when the home team is favored by 7 or more points and is 2-1-1 ATS in games involving the Colts.

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Cincinnati –6.5 at Tampa Bay
If you looked at the final score of last week’s game against the Browns, you would think that the Bengals are a mess. The only real mess is Carson Palmer who has been making poor decisions. However, Cincinnati moved the ball pretty easily against Cleveland, but the defense could not stop Peyton Hillis. The Buccaneers don’t have Peyton Hillis and their defense had a lot of problems against the Steelers. This is the point of the year where the Bengals should be gelling and the Bucs present a good opportunity for that to happen. Last year, AccuScore struggled to figure out the Bengals, but we are 2-1-1 ATS this season in picks when they play and they are a gaudy 59% to cover the number.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 @ Buffalo Bills
Despite the Jags pulling out a win last week against the Colts, this match-up still features two of the worst teams in the NFL.  Jacksonville and Buffalo rank 30th and 31st in pass and total defense, and have given up a combined 21 sacks. Their quarterbacks have been hit 49 times this year. Combined the Bills and Jags average fewer passing yards than four other NFL teams. So instead of my own opinion, I’m going with the AccuScore computers. AccuScore has the Jags winning and covering the single point in 58 percent of simulations. This year the computer has gone 5-1 in games involving the two teams, while Buffalo has been terrible against the spread going just 1-3 this season.

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Green Bay Packers -2.5 @ Washington Redskins
The Packers have possibly the best quarterback in the league this year in Aaron Rodgers, and he will be going up against a Washington defense that gives up the second most passing yards in the league. Green Bay is projected to cover the 2.5 point spread 59 percent of the time in simulations.  While Rodgers doesn’t have the benefit of a strong running game, he can feel a bit better in the pocket since the Redskins are just middle of the road creating pressure on the quarterback. The multiple receiver sets Green Bay has been utilizing should give Washington’s defense plenty of fits.

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