The Redskins were inside the 20 only 3 times against Miami. Out of those 3 trips, they converted 2 field goals and turned the ball over on an interception. The first red zone trip came late in the 1st quarter after a Matt Moore interception set Rex Grossman up with a 1st-and-goal from the 5. Using our Markov model, we look at the quick deflation of the drive:
The Skins handed the ball to Ryan Torain 3 straight times, the 3rd of which was a touchdown nullified by a holding penalty - resulting in close to a 30% drop in TD probability. A 2-yard completion to Roy Helu on 3rd-and-goal from the 10 almost guaranteed a Graham Gano field goal. Two quarters later, the Redskins had yet to enter the red zone for a 2nd time. But, another Dolphins' mistake - this time a Matt Moore fumble - set up Rex Grossman on the Miami 24. Grossman converted on his first 3rd down of the drive (play 4), putting Washington's chances of a TD over 50% for the only time on the drive.
A 6-yard completion to Fred Davis and an incompletion later, Graham Gano found himself trotting out for another short field goal attempt. Later, down 4 in the 4th quarter, Karlos Dansby intercepted Grossman on yet another 1st-and-goal from the 10. Give some credit to the Miami defense for holding Rex Grossman in check. That being said, an NFL-caliber offense should not be held out of the end zone on three drives featuring 1st downs on or inside the 10-yardline.
Keith Goldner is the creator of Drive-By Football, and Chief Analyst at numberFire.com - The leading fantasy sports analytics platform. Follow him on twitter @drivebyfootball or check out numberFire on Facebook.