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NFL Analysis: Washington Redskins Having Red Zone Issues

The Redskins were inside the 20 only 3 times against Miami.  Out of those 3 trips, they converted 2 field goals and turned the ball over on an interception.  The first red zone trip came late in the 1st quarter after a Matt Moore interception set Rex Grossman up with a 1st-and-goal from the 5.  Using our Markov model, we look at the quick deflation of the drive:

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The Skins handed the ball to Ryan Torain 3 straight times, the 3rd of which was a touchdown nullified by a holding penalty - resulting in close to a 30% drop in TD probability.  A 2-yard completion to Roy Helu on 3rd-and-goal from the 10 almost guaranteed a Graham Gano field goal. Two quarters later, the Redskins had yet to enter the red zone for a 2nd time.  But, another Dolphins' mistake - this time a Matt Moore fumble - set up Rex Grossman on the Miami 24. Grossman converted on his first 3rd down of the drive (play 4), putting Washington's chances of a TD over 50% for the only time on the drive.

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A 6-yard completion to Fred Davis and an incompletion later, Graham Gano found himself trotting out for another short field goal attempt. Later, down 4 in the 4th quarter, Karlos Dansby intercepted Grossman on yet another 1st-and-goal from the 10. Give some credit to the Miami defense for holding Rex Grossman in check.  That being said, an NFL-caliber offense should not be held out of the end zone on three drives featuring 1st downs on or inside the 10-yardline.    

Keith Goldner is the creator of Drive-By Football, and Chief Analyst at - The leading fantasy sports analytics platform.  Follow him on twitter @drivebyfootball or check out numberFire on Facebook.


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