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NBA Finals Game 6 Preview: Heat vs. Mavs

Sunday’s game six will go a long way in determining the way several of the greatest players in history will be remembered. 

While most of the focus has been on Miami and LeBron James, the Heat still have a long window to win championships as long as James is paired with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.  Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki know that this is probably their last, best chance they will get in their careers.

NBA bettors can profit in potentially the final game of the basketball season due to some strong trends.  AccuScore has terrific with its picks all season finishing the regular year +4976 units on all Advisor picks.  Postseason plays have been even better adding another +1900 units.  Playoff money line picks are 56-24 (70.0%, +287) while point spread picks have been 44-28 (61.1%, +1320).  Dallas picks against the spread this year have been especially profitable going 31-13 (71.1%).  Miami games have been very solid as well at 26-18 (59.1%).  Both the money line and totals picks are three-star Advisor plays.

It should come as no surprise that simulations have Nowitzki leading all scorers with a projected 29 points.  Shawn Marion and Jason Terry are projected for another 29 combined points.  The Mavs definitely need both players to score in order to close out the series.  As a team, they have been great from the free throw line and they project to shoot 81% in this game.  Dallas would do well to continue attacking early to get into the bonus and get easy points from the stripe.

Each of Miami’s big three is projected for at least 20 points apiece.  James is projected to shoot much better at home at 49% on field goals, and getting to the line nearly 9 times.  If James truly is aggressive enough to get that many free throws, Miami should expect to get to a Game 7.  Another big factor for the Heat will the role players namely Udonis Haslem who is projected for 7 points and 7 boards.  He is helping to produce a nearly five rebound advantage per simulation.  All of this leads to a forecasted advantage for the Heat as they win nearly 70% of the time.


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