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NBA Analysis: Enough with the Long Jumpers, Chicago Bulls

By Marco Radenkovich

I didn't want my first post of 2011-2012 season to be a complaining post, but too damn bad, haha.  It's just a minor issue I have.  With Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng, the Bulls should not take long two point jumpers as a main source of offense.  Through the first 72 minutes of the season, there have been a lot of long two's. 

The phrase that has been used for the longest time in the NBA is "the mid-range game is gone in the NBA."  What most people don't understand is that the 18-foot jump shot is not worth it.  The expected points from a mid-range jumper is lower than expected points from a lay-up.  If a lay-up isn't available, why not look for a three-pointer?  The list of those that should be taking long two-pointers is short - and only one Bulls player from last year is on the list - Kyle Korver.  

Evidence?  Check this out. 

So CJ Watson - your 34% from long-two range is way behind your three-point range at 39.3%.  His two-point shot expectancy is 0.68 while his three-point expectancy is 1.18.  It's just baffling.  It's really not hard to understand.  Oh, and Ronnie Brewer?  Don't shoot the ball unless it's a dunk.  Check that link again - not pretty.

Unless your name is Rip Hamilton, try to get the ball into the paint.  Getting the ball into the paint leads to either a drive and kick, a free throw attempt, or an easy bucket.  We're not doing that, and that's why we're not very good right now.

But, this will all change, and we're going to be fine this year.  It's just that the earlier we understand the issue with long two-pointers, the better.

Get more great Chicago Bulls analysis over at Horns to the Hardwood.


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