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MMA Analysis: Demetrious Johnson vs. Ian McCall at UFC on FX 2

Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

[Ed. Note: Get more great stuff over at Breakdown Fights]

Betting Strategy:

Demetrious Johnson

Pick to win: Demetrious Johnson by Decision

I’m not calculating my usual “probability of win” for this fight because this one is unique.

“Mighty Mouse” Johnson has been fighting as a bantamweight in the UFC/WEC and has 6 fights in the Fight Metric database. I think his numbers accurately reflect who he is as a fighter.

“Uncle Creepy” McCall on the other hand fought 3 times in the WEC as a bantamweight but then went on to fight at smaller promotions as a flyweight to become what many considered the top flyweight in the world.

We don’t have stats for those smaller promotions, so long story short, McCall’s stats might not completely reflect how good he is today.

The numbers we do have still give the nod for the win to Johnson, especially given the tougher level of competition he’s faced, I’m just not sure by how much.

. . . . .

Ian McCall

The current moneyline on McCall is +280 (= 26% chance of winning, $100 pays $280).

That line feels too long. Even though I think Johnson is more likely to win this fight, I might play McCall here as a long shot. Need to watch more film on Uncle Creepy this week since the stats are wonky. Leaving this one a question mark for now.

Click for all UFC on FX 2 breakdowns.

Mike the Geek

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

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Get more great MMA news and analysis over at Breakdown Fights.


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