MMA Analysis: Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz at UFC 143

Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

Click for all UFC 143 breakdowns.

[Ed. Note: Make sure to check out all of Mike the Geek's other MMA analysis over at Breakdown Fights]

Betting Strategy:

Pick to win: Nick Diaz by KO/TKO, Round 1

Nick Diaz has the statistical advantage in striking.

Both fighters have been about equally efficient and heavy-handed, and Condit has done a much better job limiting strikes from opponents, but Diaz takes the edge based on his huge 515 strikes landed per hour (compared to 167 for Condit).

Fun fact: Diaz is busy. He throws a strike every 2.5 seconds, more than any fighter we track in MMA today (see the stats).

Diaz also has a slight statistical advantage in grappling. Neither fighter has had much success getting opponents to the ground, but Diaz has done a better job defensively by limiting opponents’ takedowns (allowing just 3.5 per hour vs 14.3 for Condit) and limiting passes once on the ground (allowing 0.9 per hour vs 6.8).

Other factors: Condit will have a 2″ reach advantage, but that is insignificant. Diaz fights southpaw and Condit orthodox (advantage Diaz).

Putting it all together, the math gives Nick Diaz the strong edge for the win (73%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: Nick Diaz (odds favorite)

The current moneyline on Diaz is -175 (= 64% chance of winning, $100 pays $57).

Based on the stats, I like Diaz, even as a strong favorite. I’ll continue monitoring the odds and wager on Diaz assuming the odds don’t get too long from here.

Click for all UFC 143 breakdowns.

. . . . .

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to all other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).

Click to read more FAQs about understanding these stats.

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Get more great MMA news and analysis over at Breakdown Fights.


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