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Juan Manuel Marquez’s Las Vegas Odds vs. Manny Pacquiao Improve

If you’re looking for a longshot bet, Las Vegas may have just the thing for you.

Heading into the fast-approaching November 12 showdown between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez, the one general sentiment shared by all has been that the latter has absolutely no shot at beating the former. That regardless of what kind of stuff gets flung in Pacquiao’s direction, be it personal family issues, or legal concerns, or other challenges – nothing will derail the Filipino champion from emerging victorious. (Of course, that won't stop people from watching the massacre live.)

So, based on this, Las Vegas odds should not have changed at any point between the announcement of the fight and present day, right? Or, at the very least, they shouldn’t have improved in Marquez’s favor seeing as the only noteworthy thing he’s done in the last few months is drink his own urine.

Apparently, the good folks in Las Vegas have a different way of thinking, though. As per the Philippine Star, here is how the betting lines have changed over the last few months:

The betting line for the Manny Pacquiao-Juan Manuel Marquez fight in Las Vegas on Nov. 12 opened at 8-to-1 … Pacquiao was installed a -800 favorite and Marquez, a +500 underdog…Since the opening line, the odds have slightly changed. … Now, a $750 wager on Pacquiao will bring in $100 and a $100 bet on Marquez will pay back $525. That means, Marquez got a minor boost from his backers.

The over-under betting line has Pacquiao the -135 favorite at under 10 1/2 rounds and Marquez, the +105 underdog at over 10 1/ 2. According to a source familiar with the betting game, this means a $135 wager on Pacquiao to win by knockout before the 1:30 mark of the 11th round will rake in $100 and a $100 bet on Marquez to win by knockout after the 1:30 mark of the 11th will pay off $105.

Obviously the change in odds was miniscule, but the mere fact that it happened is interesting in itself. By nearly everyone’s account, Marquez has no shot in this one. Everyone from Freddie Roach to Alex Ariza to boxing pundits to random observers admit this much.

So if that’s the case, how is it that Marquez’s odds are improving, albeit slightly? Clearly this is just a case of the typical gambling trickery that occurs before any major sporting event, where certain bets being placed -- based on time and total value -- alter the lines going forward.

Nevertheless, it’s still funny to watch these odds essentially move on pure air – nothing more.

Protip: Bet Pacquiao.


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