If you look at the daily line report, you will see that AccuScore is 4-2 this season against the spread in games involving Boise State. This would be great news if it wasn’t for the fact that AccuScore is only 1-4-1 in games involving Louisiana Tech. When one team is hot and the other is not, you have to combine the data with the game situation.
Louisiana Tech has averaged only 18 points in their four losses this year and have only had a strong offensive output in one of their wins. We can say it’s a pretty safe assumption that the Bulldogs will not beat Boise State, so that makes me pay more attention to their average score in losses.
Boise State state has averaged just over 54 points in their last three games and have only given up two touchdowns during the same time period. Its ironic that 54.7 - 18 = 36.7 which is within a point of the game line. AccuScore simulates Boise State to win by 40 points and is covering the 37.5 points in 55.5% of simulations.
This game also demands that you apply what you know about college football and Boise State. While Oregon and Auburn made the most of their showcase games last weekend, Boise State had a bye week. A Tuesday night showcase on national television gives the Broncos the much needed opportunity to show that they can score points in droves.