NFL Efficiency Rankings - Week 9

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The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability.

The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort.

RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK

1
SD
2
0.81
0.43
1
4

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2
NYG
3
0.79
0.53
2
1

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3
PIT
1
0.79
0.51
4
3

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4
TEN
6
0.71
0.58
5
2

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5
IND
4
0.71
0.56
7
10

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6
KC
5
0.68
0.51
15
7

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7
GB
7
0.64
0.50
6
14

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8
MIA
9
0.63
0.54
17
11

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9
HOU
10
0.62
0.61
3
25

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10
PHI
8
0.61
0.48
11
8

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11
NE
11
0.56
0.54
8
24

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12
NYJ
18
0.54
0.51
26
6

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13
BAL
13
0.53
0.49
19
13

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14
CHI
16
0.52
0.48
27
9

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15
MIN
21
0.50
0.53
20
12

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16
DAL
11
0.50
0.57
9
28

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17
WAS
12
0.49
0.53
18
17

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18
NO
20
0.49
0.42
14
18

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19
ATL
15
0.45
0.47
12
27

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20
CIN
21
0.43
0.46
22
26

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21
CLE
19
0.41
0.53
25
19

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22
OAK
30
0.41
0.45
16
16

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23
DEN
22
0.38
0.48
10
31

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24
SF
25
0.36
0.45
21
20

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25
DET
27
0.36
0.55
24
22

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26
JAC
31
0.35
0.59
23
30

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27
TB
23
0.34
0.42
13
32

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28
BUF
28
0.33
0.56
28
29

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29
CAR
26
0.31
0.46
32
5

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30
STL
29
0.29
0.40
30
15

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31
SEA
24
0.23
0.43
29
23

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32
ARI
32
0.21
0.43
31
21

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And here are team efficiency stats through week 8.

TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE

ARI
4.7
4.6
5.2
1.4
6.2
4.4
2.9
0.44

ATL
6.2
4.2
2.0
0.3
7.0
4.1
4.5
0.36

BAL
6.4
3.6
2.5
0.8
6.0
4.2
2.2
0.39

BUF
5.3
4.5
3.1
0.9
6.7
5.0
0.5
0.33

CAR
4.7
3.3
5.7
2.5
5.5
3.6
4.5
0.38

CHI
5.7
4.0
5.6
0.3
5.5
3.6
3.4
0.36

CIN
6.1
3.8
2.5
1.4
6.2
4.5
3.7
0.38

CLE
5.9
3.9
3.8
1.8
6.9
3.9
3.4
0.42

DAL
6.8
3.7
3.7
0.0
6.9
4.5
2.6
0.54

DEN
7.0
2.9
1.6
1.7
7.1
4.6
2.3
0.52

DET
5.6
3.6
3.0
0.8
6.0
4.9
3.4
0.54

GB
6.7
4.2
3.3
0.5
5.6
4.6
4.2
0.39

HOU
6.4
5.3
2.6
0.3
7.2
4.1
1.4
0.34

IND
7.0
3.7
0.7
1.0
5.8
4.9
2.6
0.35

JAC
5.9
4.2
4.9
1.0
7.9
4.4
3.1
0.37

KC
6.2
5.2
1.7
0.3
5.8
3.8
2.2
0.35

MIA
6.3
3.9
3.2
0.8
6.1
3.8
2.3
0.25

MIN
5.9
4.7
5.1
1.2
6.3
3.9
2.6
0.44

NE
6.4
4.2
1.8
0.0
6.9
3.9
3.3
0.39

NO
6.5
3.6
3.3
0.9
5.8
4.1
2.2
0.41

NYG
6.8
4.8
4.6
1.8
5.0
3.5
3.1
0.45

NYJ
5.7
4.8
1.8
1.7
5.8
3.4
2.0
0.53

OAK
6.0
4.9
3.3
0.9
5.7
4.7
1.7
0.65

PHI
6.3
4.9
1.6
0.8
5.6
4.0
4.6
0.58

PIT
7.1
4.0
3.7
1.2
6.0
2.6
3.8
0.32

SD
7.7
4.2
2.3
1.6
5.2
3.5
2.8
0.39

SF
6.0
3.9
3.6
1.1
6.6
3.6
3.0
0.56

SEA
5.0
3.6
3.0
0.0
6.4
3.9
2.2
0.46

STL
5.1
3.6
2.7
0.2
5.4
4.3
2.7
0.44

TB
6.0
4.2
1.3
0.9
6.6
5.2
6.4
0.42

TEN
6.7
4.2
2.4
1.1
5.6
4.1
4.1
0.55

WAS
6.0
4.1
2.8
1.1
6.1
4.6
2.6
0.38

Avg
6.1
4.1
3.1
1.0
6.2
4.1
3.0
0.43

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