NFL Efficiency Rankings: Week 11

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One of the more perplexing things about the rankings lately is that the 7-2 Patriots have a net negative balance of offensive and defensive YPA.

NE averages 6.5 net YPA but gives up 6.8 net YPA, while their other stats are very average.

How are they winning and beating quality opponents (0.60 Opponent GWP)?

Perhaps part of the answer is consistency. Their offensive Success Rate, adjusted for opponent is 2nd in the league. They might only be getting 6.5 YPA, but if they got 6 or 7 yards on every attempt, they'd be unbeatable.

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort.

RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK

1
SD
1
0.80
0.41
1
3

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2
PIT
2
0.76
0.55
8
2

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3
NYG
3
0.71
0.45
4
5

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4
GB
5
0.70
0.51
9
8

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5
PHI
6
0.69
0.48
2
6

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6
MIA
10
0.68
0.59
11
12

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7
TEN
4
0.64
0.59
18
1

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8
BAL
9
0.62
0.54
19
13

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9
KC
8
0.59
0.48
15
9

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10
NYJ
11
0.59
0.53
22
7

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11
IND
7
0.58
0.53
24
10

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12
NE
16
0.57
0.60
7
25

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13
MIN
14
0.55
0.51
14
16

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14
NO
12
0.54
0.42
16
15

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15
CLE
17
0.52
0.56
20
18

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16
HOU
13
0.51
0.55
3
29

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17
CIN
19
0.51
0.54
25
17

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18
CHI
15
0.50
0.45
27
4

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19
DAL
21
0.50
0.57
6
26

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20
ATL
20
0.48
0.51
13
23

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21
WAS
18
0.43
0.52
17
24

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22
DEN
24
0.42
0.49
5
30

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23
TB
23
0.41
0.41
10
31

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24
OAK
22
0.40
0.45
23
14

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25
SF
25
0.40
0.43
12
20

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26
BUF
27
0.36
0.55
28
27

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27
JAC
28
0.34
0.57
21
32

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28
DET
26
0.32
0.53
26
21

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29
SEA
31
0.26
0.42
29
22

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30
CAR
30
0.23
0.47
32
11

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31
STL
29
0.23
0.38
30
19

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32
ARI
32
0.17
0.44
31
28

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And here are each team's efficiency stats.

TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE

ARI
4.9
4.2
4.3
1.1
6.9
4.3
3.0
0.41

ATL
6.2
4.0
1.5
0.2
6.9
4.2
4.6
0.33

BAL
6.5
3.8
2.3
0.8
6.0
4.0
2.6
0.38

BUF
5.4
4.4
3.0
1.2
6.5
4.7
0.7
0.31

CAR
4.4
3.6
4.8
2.4
5.8
4.1
3.8
0.41

CHI
5.8
3.8
5.0
0.2
5.5
3.5
4.0
0.42

CIN
6.0
3.7
3.1
1.3
6.1
4.3
3.3
0.36

CLE
6.1
4.2
3.1
1.9
6.6
3.9
3.2
0.39

DAL
7.1
3.6
4.0
0.0
7.1
4.3
2.5
0.51

DEN
7.2
3.2
1.4
1.5
7.2
4.4
1.8
0.48

DET
5.7
3.4
2.6
0.9
6.3
4.7
3.1
0.55

GB
6.8
4.2
3.0
0.5
5.5
4.5
4.4
0.37

HOU
6.8
5.0
2.3
0.2
7.8
4.1
1.5
0.34

IND
6.5
3.7
1.0
0.8
5.9
5.0
3.0
0.36

JAC
6.4
4.3
4.3
0.8
8.1
4.3
2.8
0.39

KC
6.3
4.8
1.5
0.6
6.0
4.0
2.1
0.39

MIA
6.5
3.8
3.7
1.3
5.9
4.0
2.1
0.27

MIN
6.3
4.5
5.4
1.1
6.2
3.7
2.7
0.41

NE
6.5
4.1
1.6
0.0
6.9
4.2
2.9
0.42

NO
6.4
3.8
3.2
0.8
5.2
4.2
2.2
0.42

NYG
7.1
4.6
4.1
1.6
5.7
3.5
3.7
0.45

NYJ
6.1
4.6
2.0
1.5
5.8
3.4
1.6
0.55

OAK
6.0
4.9
3.3
1.3
5.6
4.5
1.9
0.69

PHI
6.8
5.4
1.3
0.6
5.8
4.1
5.0
0.59

PIT
6.9
4.0
3.3
0.9
6.2
2.8
3.2
0.35

SD
8.0
4.0
2.4
1.7
5.4
3.6
2.9
0.41

SF
6.4
3.9
3.3
0.9
6.4
3.7
2.6
0.59

SEA
5.6
3.6
3.3
0.2
6.5
3.9
2.0
0.46

STL
5.1
3.7
2.4
0.2
5.9
4.2
2.5
0.51

TB
6.4
4.4
1.8
0.9
6.5
4.8
4.9
0.43

TEN
6.2
4.3
2.4
1.0
5.8
3.9
3.9
0.54

WAS
6.2
4.3
3.5
1.2
6.5
5.0
2.4
0.38

Avg
6.3
4.1
2.9
0.9
6.3
4.1
2.9
0.43

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