The third place Leaders Division team Wisconsin (4-4) vs the legitimate 1st place Legends champions Nebraska. I know this alone isn’t worth the play on Nebraska. But with all things being equal, including the coaching matchup, I’m going with the team that is playing their best football right now.
Wisky’s defense against Penn State looked like they were starting to show some wear and tear. Most likely because they are used to their team over years controlling the clock with a balanced offense. But this year isn’t the case with no Russell Wilson and a lack of a passiing game. Wisky hasn’t had a win over a decent winning BCS program this season. While Nebraska is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against winning teams. I look for the streak to continue here.
Nevada (+9) over Boise State **
I didn’t get the best early number on this game, but I still like the play. I’ll start by saying I still like this Boise team. And they will flat get after you on defense. But their offense is another story. It’s why I don’t think they have any business giving nearly DD on the road against a team like Nevada who is averaging 500 ypg on offense. Against the respectable teams Boise has two losses this year. And three wins by 10 points or less. With most of those games being played on the Smurf Turf. Not the case here where they’ll have to cover on the road.
Nevada is getting more points at home than they’ve gotten since 2010 when they shocked the then #3 Boise State team as +14 point dogs. Boise just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games. And they have had some big problems containing good rushing teams where they have an even worse ATS record. I’ll happily take the points here.
South Alabama +7 (-120) over Hawaii ***
I’m playing this game on the presumption that ASU isn’t in Hawaii just for the vacation. Any team that is 2-10 on the season probably isn’t going to be given any free vacations by their coach. For a team just coming into Division 1 for the first year, they are looking for as many wins as they can get. As for Hawaii, I think people just need to get used to the fact that this isn’t the same team who won us a lot of money in those late Saturday night games. And who could rack up some outrageous stats in the passing game. That’s not even close to being the case this season with Hawaii averaging a pultry 86 yards rushing and 194 passing. And now they are giving a TD? I don’t think so.
I’ve seen this Hawaii team play 3 times this year. They are terrible in every facet of the game. They can’t get out of their own way, and they have just 17 offensive TD’s this year, with the other 5 coming from some other facet of the game for a total of 22. That’s why I like my 7 points here. I’m definitely not expecting any Hawaii offensive explosion. Although their record doesn’t show it, SAU has been very competetive in the SBC this year with half of their games being decided by a TD or less. And these games came against better and more sound teams than Hawaii. I’ll happily take the 7 over a team that doesn’t have any business giving points to any Division 1 team.