Going a little bit against the grain and against the other guys on this one. I like UCF here.
These two teams are both similar. Both have good defenses, and both get it done on offense, but do nothing stellar. If you look at NCAA stats, they would tell you that Tulsa has a better offense. They have accumulated better stats but their rankings have not led to points and wins, where as UCF’s have. UCF’s offense is a bit better than Tulsa’s.
The last time these two played, it was a grinder of a game and Tusla won. UCF got a bit lucky even on their scoring. Tulsa’s front 7 on D absolutely dominated UCFs. UCF went into half with 0 yards rushing…ZERO! UCF should be ready for some revenge, and you have to look back on a full season, not just on one game.
I don’t think this game is high scoring either way, benefiting a low spread and the underdog. I have this game on a neutral field with UCF being a 1.5 point favorite. Giving Tulsa homefield, but a low level conference championship game, that doesn’t account for tons.
Finally, I have watched Tulsa the past few weeks, as I have bet on them a few times. Love their defense, don’t love their offense. They aren’t that great moving the ball, nor playing from behind. They pick up 3rd downs on 37% of the time vs UCF picking them up 47% of the time. They also don’t score well in the RZ, kicking almost as many FGs as they score TDs.
This game could well come down to special teams, and UCF has the clear advantage there.
UCF 28, Tulsa 24