I have been down on Boise St. all season, as I don’t think this is a Boise team as deserving as teams past. They are very well coached though, so they will always be in contention. A win here gives them a chances for a BCS game.
Without taking in motivation factors, I still think this Boise team can cover this number. Nevada actually has a decent offense, but they have accumulated that offense vs a pretty weak schedule.
In comparison, Boise St.’s defense is very good though, ranking 15th according to my numbers. Their defense is also very good in correlation stats that lead to wins on the defense side as well. There are only two teams that scored over 20 points against Boise St. all season, and I think Nevada may end up right around there.
The biggest question on if Boise St. can cover is can they get it done on offense. I have Nevada ranked 99th in defense. Boise St. played a few other weak defenses like this one and put up 30+ every single time.
So the numbers look good. Both teams are coming off of a late season bye week. With a win here, Boise St. will capture a share of the Mountain West title, and stay in the running for the BCS bowl. I think Bronco gets the guys ready and they will be more focused, and in the end, their defense will shut down Nevada.
Boise St. 31, Nevada 17