I went 4-4 on posted picks and 0-1 with the newsletter ML parlay selection. I really blew it with my two late adds last week and I have been chastised by Trentmoney for turning a winning week into a loser. In this case Trent is 100% correct as the two late adds were “marginal” selections, at best.
Pezgordo’s Week # 12 College football Picks
North Carolina State +17
Good write-up here from jimmyshivers on this game.
I used this selection as our weekly SEC video pick (8-3 YTD) at SECPRESSPASS. A few quick reasons why I like the Vols this week. Despite their current bad run in the SEC and Vandy having a really solid team, Tennessee still has a lot more talent than Vandy. Second, the Vols can still gain bowl eligibility by beating Vanderbilt and Kentucky, so there should be no reason why they aren’t motivated to play this game. Lastly, they own Vanderbilt, especially in Nashville where they haven’t lost since 1982. In what I believe will be a very close, hard fought game, I will take the 4 points.
Purdue – Illinois U 51
The Illini offense is hapless. They are the worst offense in the Big 10 averaging 278 ypg and in conference play they have scored 7, 14, 0, 17, 22 & 3 (10.5 ppg). Defensively they aren’t much better ranking 9th in ypg allowed. However at home they are only allowing 26.77 ppg in Big 10 play and they held Penn State, Indiana and Minnesota under their offensive YPG season avg. The Boilers are only avg 18.83 ppg in Big 10 play and have scored no more than 28 points in a single conference game. We also have two of the worst QB’s in the league (Purdue is 9th & Illinois is 11th in pass efficiency. The Illini are 11th in the Big 10 in rushing and Purdue is slightly better at 7th. And for good measure, these are the two worst red zone offenses in the Big 10.
Iowa State – Kansas U 48
I watched Kansas last week against Texas Tech and came away a little bit impressed. They actually played pretty solid D and they can run the hell out of the ball. Based on my run numbers I actually have Iowa State’s run D ranked a little higher than Texas Tech’s. It is the Cyclone pass D that is not doing very well. With KU’s inability to throw the football (they rank last in the Big 12), hopefully this is a good match-up for Cyclone defense. Statistically these are the two worst offenses in the Big 12 with the two worst pass efficiency QBs (by far) in the league. These two also rank 8th and 10th in offensive red zone efficiency.
Ohio State +3
Good write-up here by GoSooners. Also some good info about Urban Meyers ATS record following a bye week. Based on my numbers I have this game more or less even, but I really like the QB advantage for Ohio State and just because you beat up on Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue and Illinois, that doesn’t all of a sudden make you a good team. Wisky has played three BCS teams with a pulse this year and they lost to all three of them. They also should have lost to Utah State.
Ole Miss +18.5
Sabert and I discussed this game at length yesterday and from a statistical standpoint I like Mississippi’s chances to stay within this number. Ole Miss scored 10 at Georgia and 14 at Alabama. LSU is allowing 17 ppg in SEC play and have allowed 10, 14, 21 & 17 to offenses that are not as (statistically) good as the Rebels. So I think Ole Miss will get a few scores in this game and wouldn’t be surprised to see them score between 13-17 points. The LSU offense is starting to find itself the past two weeks, but they still are not build to score 30+ points, an amount they have surpassed in one SEC game this season. And that final score last week (37-17) was misleading (100 int return w/ Miss State about to go in and make the game 30-24). On the other side of the ball the Ole Miss D is allowing 29 ppg in SEC play, but they have also played the three best offenses in the league (allowed 30 to A & M, 33 to Bama and 37 to UGA). I think LSU will need to score at least 35 points in this game and that is a number their offense has yet to attain in any SEC game this season. Also, for whatever reason, Ole Miss plays LSU tough in Baton Rouge (despite only 1 win in their last 5 trips to Baton Rouge, they’ve outscored LSU 124-120 and the 4 losses have been by an avg of 3.5 ppg).
Washington – Colorado U 55
My “only one team will score” theory didn’t work out last week with the Buffs at Arizona. However, I will admit that I had no idea that Arizona’s defense was that bad. Way back in May I made a futures wager on ASU +7.5 against the Cats (game is in Tucson next Friday), and I am feeling really good about it after watching the second worst tackling team I have seen all season (unfortunately Colorado is by far first). But this week we actually have a legit defense in Washington. In their last 3 PAC 12 games, against offenses that were much more potent than Colorado’s, the Huskies have allowed 17, 13 & 15 points. The UW offense has been struggling all season, averaging a little less than 19 ppg. I’ve got to believe that even if the produce their best offensive effort of the season (vs BCS competition), they still only score in the mid-30′s. Also, the UCLA-CU total was lined at 59 (and went under 42-14). UW has nowhere near as explosive an offense as UCLA, but the UW defense is every bit as good (if not better) than the Bruins.