AccuScore’s resident experts are back to make their picks for Week 7 of the college football season.
Oregon State +2 at Washington
When the Beavers beat Arizona last week they showed that they continue to get stronger as the season goes on. Sure they lost James Rodgers for the season, but he was lost early in that game and the Beavers still held on for the win. With James on crutches, the offenses will center around his brother even more. Jacquizz Rodgers sees an increase in carries by roughly 20% and is projected to run for 134 yards and two touchdowns. We also expect Ryan Katz to check down more, which means the Beavers will be in manageable down and distance throughout the game. I like Oregon State to win straight up and so does AccuScore listing the Beavers as a 57 percent favorite despite getting points on the road. Take the two points Vegas is offering and you become a 59 percent favorite to win.
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Ohio State –3.5 at Wisconsin
This high profile game is getting plenty of coverage and we know what each team is all about. If you are subscriber to AccuScore and are using our data properly this game should be jumping out at you. AccuScore lists Ohio State with a 57 percent probability of covering the number and I agree. Getting past the game forecast, I am focused on AccuScore history with these two teams. The computer is 3-1-1 this season in ATS forecasts when Wisconsin plays and 4-1 in ATS forecasts when Ohio State plays. AccuScore’s 7-2-1 record with the teams involved rubber stamps a high ATS game forecast and solidifies my pick.
Arkansas +3.5 at Auburn
Thanks to Cam Newton, Auburn has established itself as a true contender in the SEC and the national championship race. The Tigers have gotten there not by beating good teams, but by outlasting them. There is no doubt after come-from-behind victories against South Carolina and Clemson Auburn will not panic if Arkansas starts out fast as it usually does. From a fan’s point of view this game is hard to project, but from a statistics perspective Arkansas is the play. The Hogs are 56 percent to cover and the seasonal trends show these teams play to their simulations. AccuScore is 2-1-1 ATS this season in games Arkansas plays in and 4-2 ATS in games that Auburn plays in.
Texas A&M -3.5 vs. Missouri
This is one time I will go against the computer even though Missouri is projected to cover in 57.1 percent of simulations. Either way, this is forecasted as a very close game with A&M winning 50.1 percent of simulations. Missouri has entered the top 25 and starting to get some national attention, but they have yet to play a true road game. The only non-home game the Tigers have played was a neutral site game in St. Louis. The Tigers are also hanging their hats on a supposedly much-improved defense, but I don’t buy it because of the very soft schedule. The only solid offensive team they have played was San Diego State and the Aztecs put up 440 yards of offense with 24 points. The Aggies have had severe turnover problems from quarterback Jerrod Johnson, but Johnson tends to play better at home. Their defensive numbers also look much more impressive than Missouri’s since they have played two legitimate teams (ARK, Ok St.). Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert also suffered a hip pointer last week, and is not 100 percent for this game. Combining all of those factors, I am taking the Aggies to have a bounce back week.
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Utah -20.5 at Wyoming
This Utes team was clearly underrated to start the season. They have an offense led by Jordan Wynn and Shaky Smithson that piled up 593 yards and 68 points last week, and has been averaging 49 points per game. They will be going up against a Wyoming team that ranks 116th in total defense. Looking at the Cowboys results, they have clearly struggled against dynamic spread offenses that feature speed (6-96 combined score against TCU and Boise). Their best performances came against Air Force which runs the triple option, and a Texas team that has unsuccessfully tried to go with the power run and eschew the spread passing game. Utah though fits the mold of TCU and Boise, and should light up the scoreboard. Utah is projected to cover the spread 63.2 percent of the time. AccuScore’s record ATS with the Utes is a perfect 4-0.