NCAA Tournament March Madness: Clemson Lock to Beat West Virginia?


Yesterday I wrote in our Best Bets-ATS article that there are nine games in the first round that you should jump on, and Clemson -4.5 was one of them. Both teams had very good records with the AccuScore compute and the Tigers were covering the number in close to 60% of our simulations.

It is always good to get off to a good start, and see how a statistical advantage can increase your bankroll. If you are filling out your brackets, now you are faced with the question, "What should I do with Clemson vs. West Virginia?"

12-seeded Clemson will play their second game of the tournament when they square off with 5-seeded West Virginia. Believe it or not, Clemson is simulating higher then West Virginia straight up, by a narrow margin. Immediately you are faced with what to do in your brackets. If you are using AccuScore's advice and only playing by the numbers, the only play here is to advance Clemson.

Each higher seed has an expected first round win value based on their straight up simulations against their opponents. A 5-seed should be winning at least 65% of their opening round simulations to feel like they are as good as their ranking. The fact that West Virginia is well below that number and not even winning the majority of their simulations puts them on immediately upset alert.

Additionally, Clemson is getting points in this game. Clemson plus the points against West Virginia actually would qualify as one of our best bets, with both teams posting nice profitable ATS records with AccuScore over the course of the season.


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