Had another solid week last week. Glad things are working out well, but even happier I feel like I have only been on the wrong side/completely misread of a few games all season. Below are my Week 6 College Football Picks.
Think this is going to be a little bit of a switch of a week for me. I was riding some big favs the past few weeks as I thought certain teams were mis-priced. I think the books have started to correct, and the dogs may start to have more value.
Week 1: 5-3 +3.5* units , Week 2: 6-2 +10* units, Week 3: 3-3, -.5* units, Week 4: 5-2, +6.5u, Week 5: 4-2, +5.5u
Overall: 23-12 + 25* Units
3.5* Units, Ole Miss +11.5 vs A&M
(if this goes to +13, I’ll add another unit)
I think after this game, value on Ole Miss will start to change as they face their SEC schedule. People that just look at the box scores of last weeks game at Bama, would assume that Ole Miss D, as most of the season has gone, looked bad. It was quite the opposite here. The D held Bama to one sustained, long scoring drive. The defense is coming together, and getting players back and healthy is key here. Bama scored on a kickoff return, short fields set up by turnovers, and one long sustained drive.
Now A&M on the other hand has a very powerful offense. They are led by Manziel, a freshman QB. He can run and throw the ball well, and they look to get quick passes to their playmakers in space. The only loss that A&M has is the first game of the season when they hosted Florida. They actually led this game, but Florida came out and the defense put it too them. Since then, they haven’t played a team that plays a lick of defense. Arky defense does not count. This is also the first real away game for Manziel, and first SEC away game. It is a night game, the Ole Miss fans will have all day to spend in the grove, and I expect this game to go a bit differently than the Texas game.
Ole Miss can win this game I think. They need to protect the ball better and force A&M to work for their scores. Forcing some A&M turnovers wouldn’t be bad either. In conclusion, home, running dogs, with an underrated D, underrated coach, getting double digits. Yup.
Ole Miss 33, A&M 38
2.5* Units, Vandy +7 vs Mizzou
Both teams going for their first SEC win. All things shaping up here to be a battle.
Vandy appears from all my experience to be in a good situational spot here. They have played a TOUGH first 4 games. They played SC first at home, and lost 13-17. They went to Northwestern, which is an extremely tough place to play believe it or not, and lost 13-23. Finally, they went to UGA, and just couldn’t get it together. Those teams are all ranked in the top 25, with SC and UGA being in the Top 10.
They took their much needed bye last week in prep for this game. Coming into this season, I had decent expectations for Vandy. They were returning a decent amount on both sides of the ball, and ironically, I was more high on their offense and defense. I think they have fallen fate to playing some really good defenses teams here early. Their defense is solid. The extra week should give their offense some spark I think and chance to plan.
Mizzou on the other hand is banged up. They are coming off a tough game at UCF that they honestly should have lost. They scored on a Punt Return, a short field set up by an INT, and a broken 80 yard play. They are returning home, at 3-2, and taking on an underrated Vandy team.
These teams are actually pretty similar according to my stats, and I honestly have Vandy being favored if it wasn’t for homefield. Vandy has better Yds/Pass Attempt, Avg Rushing. Vandy ranks 118th in 3rd downs, with Mizzou at 115. Vandy is better in some of the key categories that lead to points (let’s hope) and wins (would be nice). I think this is going to be a breakout game, for either team. They suck in the Red-Zone and 3rd down, so whoever can get short fields and convert for scores should win.
Think it could be a field goal either way honestly.
Vandy 21, Mizzou 24