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2012 College Football Week 6 Preview: Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Maryland Terrapins

Here in week 6, we continue to devalue our preseason prognostications and start to rely more and more on what we’ve seen on the field this year.  Obviously for me it hasn’t gone the way that I wanted it to for the opening third of the year, but I am confident I will bounce back if I stick with my handicapping guns.

This is a great time to look at the teams who have been the beneficiaries of some great spots and opponents let-downs and look to go against them.  It’s also a good time to really dig into the box scores and really get a feel for where teams are weak and how well their opponents can exploit their holes.

Week 5 ACC Plays:
**** Maryland Terrapins -5.5 -108
*** Virginia Cavaliers ML +105

Week 5 Write-ups

**** Maryland Terrapins -5.5 -108

Think this is a really good spot for the Terrapins, getting an extra week to prepare for that tricky Wake blocking scheme and to just get healthier overall.  That their going against a Wake Forest team that is both banged up and really struggling is just a bonus.

This Wake defense just isn’t playing like Jim Grobe and co. hoped it would.  Wake’s plan was to have the defense carry them early on as the offense adjusted to a new o-line and 7 lost starters, but they’ve been disapointing (5.1 ypc allowed and 63% passing).  Maryland’s offense has really struggled at times, but I think they have a solid chance to win the battle at the LOS and establish the run game.  Maryland has had turnover problems (-1.7 TO ratio a game vs FBS schools) but if they can establish the run game here it takes the pressure off the rapidly improving Perry Hills and allows them to pick their spots to stretch the field with the electric Stefon Diggs.

Offensively, Wake looks to be in a tough spot. This Maryland defensive front is one of the top groups in the ACC (2.3 ypc allowed so far) and is going against a Demon Deacon line that has struggled to block everyone but Army and Duke.  Wake will be missing the guy who is easily their best and most disruptive skill position player (WR Michael Campanaro) which should really make their offense much less dynamic and put a heavy burden on QB Tanner Price.  I like Price, but he doesn’t have a lot of playmakers without Campanaro and he’s going against a good Maryland D who will be able to get pressure.  To me it just doesn’t add up to consistent success moving the football.

My feeling on this Terp team is that overall they are still a bit undervalued.  This line is short due to Maryland’s struggles to move the football, but I see an offense that underwent some growing pains early on (2 deep is loaded with freshmen) but is gaining confidence in their freshman QB and learning to move the football .  It’s the deep and fast teams in this league that will trouble a Maryland team that isn’t very fast, and Wake doesn’t fit that profile.  The bottom line to me is these look like two teams going in opposite directions.  Maryland continues their bounce-back campaign with a solid DD victory here.

28-14 Terps.

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