Below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total. Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total. Last week we had some really good debates going on several games. This type of back and forth can be very helpful to keep perspective moving into the weekend, so please share your thoughts.
Tulane -1.5 vs. Memphis
Tulane was so bad to start the year and we all made a ton of money fading them. They are a different team with Ryan Griffin at QB. I will probably end up playing this game so I’ll save some of the hardcore analysis for the write-up, but they are better than what they seem. The team is still motivated and I think they win this one.
Ole Miss -3 vs Vandy
Obviously this may seem like a homer pick but this is the game the Rebs need to get to a bowl, and they know that. Vandy has trouble scoring and people are short-sighted and only see that they have crushed their past two opponents. There are some other factors that I will get into in the write-up that will have an impact on Ole Miss’ motivation as well. Look for me to slam this when/if (hopefully) it hits -2.5. Ole Miss wins.
UGA -15 vs Auburn
Auburn is still bad, and still starting a QB that has no clue what he’s doing. Georgia is still playing for the SEC championship and ultimately hopefully a trip to the BCS National Championship, and cannot take anyone lightly due to the computers being drunk and crazy. They should blow these jokers out. Their defense is way too good and Auburn’s is way too bad.
Penn St +7.5 vs Nebraska
My numbers have the wrong team being favored here. The correlations show Nebraska favored, but the system score projections and the coaching matrix have PSU with the edge. Travelling to Nebrsaka may be hard, but PSU should stay within a TD in a game I see probably coming within a FG.
Tulsa -2.5 vs Houston
Tulsa is coming off of a tough game against Arky in which they could have won if not for some dumb mental mistakes, but they didn’t. They are still playing for the C-USA west and a trip to the C-USA conference Championship game. Tough road game, but they are just in a different class than Houston I think. I think they win this one, which yields them about an 80% chance of covering 2.5.