2012 College Football Recap, Analysis: Oregon Ducks vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves

I would love to take credit for coming up with the description of the Duck offense as Oregon’s Offensive Death Star, but I first read it in a Matt Hinton article, so that is who deserves the credit for such a cool and appropriate description of the Duck O. 

Oregon’s going over the total

Last week around Wednesday I noticed the Oregon total sitting at 67 and I was pissed. I was pissed because for whatever reason the opening line around 62 had totally escaped me and now I had lost quite a bit of line, and you guys know how much I like line value and strive to beat the closing number.

After dilly-dallying around for the remainder of the week I exchanged a few emails with Conan about my concerns that I had missed the opening number and was wondering if Arkansas State would be able to score many points on possibly Chip Kelly’s best Oregon defense.

Conan assured me that he saw no reason why this game wouldn’t go over and said he would bet it as high as 70. I found it at 68.5 and wagered a half unit (I refuse to wager a full unit after having lost so much line value). OOPS!

The score was 50-3 by the middle of the second quarter and this one was in the bag …. Or so I thought until Oregon HC Chip Kelly started liberally substituting his starters. Oregon was playing 2nd and 3rd teamers before halftime and the offense no longer resembled the unstoppable force that had scored TDs on their first seven possessions.

Luckily for my wager Oregon was also substituting on the defensive side too, which allowed Arkansas State to eventually score 34 points, all but 3 of them being garbage points.

Is it better to bet on or against the Ducks this year?

Is this how Chip Kelly is going to approach games for the rest of the season in which the Ducks have put away the opposition early?

It makes you take a step back and consider whether or not it is worth risking a wager on the Ducks in these types of games. For example, Oregon is currently a 34.5 favorite this week against Fresno State in Autzen. Does anyone really believe that the Ducks aren’t capable of naming their score?

But will they? Or will they be content again to just put on a dazzling first half display, sit the majority of their offensive and defensive starters, and let Derek Carr and the Fresno State offense come ion through the backdoor like Arkansas State did?

So what are your thoughts about betting on or against Oregon this year after HC Kelly sat his starters midway through the first half?

- Pez

PS  Great article here at Beyond the Bets detailing the first half Oregon offensive onslaught and subsequent let up against Arkansas State.

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Get more great college football analysis over at Saturday Edge.


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