2012 College Football Week 3 Quick Pick: South Florida Bulls vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Week 1 and 2 have gone well for me, as well as for most of the people on TSE.  I wrote in my Week 2 Recap about my thoughts from the weekend which can be found here.  I refer to these notes as well as the Week 1 notes when looking at the Week 3 card. Below you will find my College Football Picks for week 3.

Week 1: 5-3 +3.5* units , Week 2: 6-2 +10* units

Overall: 11-5 + 13.5* Units

I’m sure a lot of you are getting annoyed of hearing me (or reading me) say this, but I am not an keen on being early season bettor. I’m not saying that there are not opportunities, there are, but I don’t try to chase early on because we still don’t know what teams will bring. The next few weeks will show us a lot.

When I first looked at the Week 3 card, I thought a lot of things were very tight. The books definitely put some good lines out this week. A few things have developed, but I do not foresee myself repeating last week (in volume, not in record). I would rather hit one play and hit it well than play five and hit two of them. Striving for 60+ percent here.

College Football Picks

1.5* Units Rutgers +7.5 vs. USF

Not going to go too big on Thursday night this week. Thursday night big east screwed me last week but I still like this play.

There are a few reasons primarily why I am on Rutgers, first being coaching. I am not a fan of Skip Holtz. He does not have good coaching respectability by any of the coaching statistical specialist in the capping world, and he struggles at home.

USF never lead in a road game against Nevada until the very end.  This was a good, emotional, west coast win and they are now coming home for a Thursday night game. They are coming off a short week of practice (just 3 days) and had to really expend themselves to beat Nevada. Rutgers on the other hand had a cakewalk against Howard this past weekend.

The Rutger’s defense is stout. If you follow me, you know I believe that past performance is not indicative of future results, at all. I am strongly against random stats that cappers give way too much value into to decide their sides. Stats can help affirm your side, but by no means should they be huge factors. Cap whats in front not, not behind.

Trends always break. 10 reds does not mean that black is next on the roulette wheel. A stat I do like though is Rutgers being 42-4 since holding opponents to under 300 yards. I’m not saying they do it here (I don’t think they will actually, USF can pass decently), but they are a solid team on D again this year, and there are also a few other stats that I like.

I will blog about this shortly, but I ran a correlation of almost every stat in NCAA the past 5 years and how it correlates to Wins and Points, and among the top are Avg Rushing and Tackles for losses. Rutgers is better in both categories.

I see them getting in the backfield and disrupting USF’s passing game (which is their primary attack).  USF hasn’t seen a defense this good yet this season. USF on the other hand, struggled to stop Nevada. Rutgers isn’t prolific on O, but they also aren’t lethargic. A good defense on a short week is better than a decent offense.

In a Thursday night conference battle, I’m going to take the running dogs, with a better defense and better coach getting 7.5 points.

For analysis, commentary, plays and randomness, follow @mtsabert on twitter.

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