2012 College Football Analysis: Oregon, Nebraska, Miami, UCLA, USC, Missouri and More

The following are some college football betting notes and random observations from week # 2 and some info I ran across while capping various games for the upcoming week. Please feel free to share your notes and observations in the comments section below. We would appreciate it.

Week 2 Recap

The Good – PAC 12 sides. What a fantastic weekend for the Conference of Champions. I went 3-1 wagering on PAC 12 sides this past weekend and left at least 1 easy winner on the table. Going into last Saturday Big 10 schools were 6-29 SU against PAC 12 schools on the West Coast. They are now 6-32.

The easy winner that was left on the table was Arizona +10, or +11, or +13, or whatever line you could have gotten it at. GoSooners and I had discussed this game for several weeks. The Hilton GOY line was 9.5 and we both agreed that if it hit DD we would be taking Arizona. In the end, neither of us could bring ourselves to back the Cats, even though OSU was starting a freshman QB making his first road start and their defense was “statistically” mediocre. Big miss on this game.

The Bad – Oregon -33.5. Why I even considered the full game line is beyond me. In fact there is a reason I wagered Oregon -21 (-115) in the first half. I thought that Chip would pull another substituting act like he had the week before. Heck I even wrote an article about it last week. Just a stupid, senseless wager on my part.

The Ugly – Miami -7. GoSooners and jimmyshivers both warned me against this wager. Unfortunately I didn’t listen. I watched the entire game and Miami’s defense had no answers for Collin Klein and the K-State running game. Miami was thoroughly beaten in every phase of the game.

Random thoughts from games I watched

Maryland – The frosh QB looked pretty good and the Terps have some athleticism. The defense wasn’t as good as I thought and Maryland did everything they could to allow a bad Temple team back into that game. I will give Mary credit though, once Temple got to within 1 score, instead of folding, the Terps put the game away on a nice game-winning drive.

Auburn – I was definitely wrong about this team. Offensive play calling is not very good and Kiehl Frazier, who I thought played fairly well against Clemson, was terrible in this game.

Miami & Kansas State – I was surprised at how bad Miami look and played and I was also surprised at how good Kansas State looked. That running game is going to be tough to stop.

Florida – Terrible first half, great second half. Complete domination on both sides of the ball in the second half.

Texas A & M – great first half effort. Sumlin had them ready to play so I give him props. Freshman QB Manziel is a player. That kid is going to be a playmaker …. Soon.

Oregon State – the score was a lot worse than it looks. The Beavers dominated on both sides of the ball. I wasn’t surprised at how well they played offensively, but defensively they looked great.

Wisconsin – lost too many good players and chemistry is lacking.

UCLA (fight. Fight, fight) – Freshman QB Hundley and RB Franklin (Stud) answered all the questions about the Nebraska front seven. The Bruins were a great running dog.

USC – Both lines struggled against Syracuse. I wonder if Stanford has better lines than Syracuse …. YES!

Purdue – DL was having their way with the Irish and OL was having success too. Boilers ended up being a running dog. Someone please explain to me how that was a TD for ND?

Arizona State – High octane baby!

                          Where The Bold Saguaros Raise Their Arms On High

Praying Strength For Brave Tomorrows From The Western Sky

Where Eternal Mountains Kneel At Sunset’s Gate

Here We Hail Thee, Alma Mater Arizona State


- Pez

Florida @ Tennessee - Anyone like the Gators +2.5 / +3 this week in Knoxville?  The D suffered a few key injuries last week against Texas A & M. Still figure the Gators will have the better defense on the field.

Also read where the better running team has won the last 9 games and 21 of the last 22. Florida is a definite Potential Running Dog in this game.

A few random thoughts I took from week two:

Nebraska: When Bo Pelini has top shelf talent on his defensive line, his defenses can be very good and stingy. Like in those days he had Ndamukong Suh, Glenn Dorsey, Tyler Jackson. When he doesn’t have that talent and athletism, his defenses are very average at best. As we saw Saturday night on the road at UCLA. And last year against Wisconsin and Michigan. Fortunately for the Huskers right now, they get to play a Wisky team who isn’t up to snuff on offense. And a Michigan team who is a little overrated this year, but will probably get better as the season goes. The Huskers get both of those teams at home, so I give them a decent chance at winning. But when the Huskers go on the road against OSU and Michigan State, they are going to have some big problems stopping their offenses. If it hadn’t been for the UCLA QB taking a knee on the last play of the game, Nebraska would have giving up more yards in that one game than they have in school history.

Potential Against The Spread Beaters & Busts: As you may have read before in my potential ATS beaters articles, there are certain signs that lead me to believe teams will either do very good ATS this year, or they could be busts. First, the teams who had extra special seasons the year before (double digit ATS winners) usually have a down ATS year the next year. Especially if they were an AQ team. I’ve never seen those teams come back the next year and win more than 6 games ATS. The double digit spread winners from last year were Arkansas St., Houston, La Tech, LSU, Stanford and WKU. And Kansas State and Vandy came close with 9 ATS wins each. I’ll be keeping a close tab of these teams. But I can tell you that betting on those double digit spread winners of 2011 is going to make me very nervous. So far the only one of these teams that are 2-0 ATS is WKU. Keep in mind though that WKU played an FCS team in their first game, and were 38 point dogs in their second game. This week against Kentucky will be a much stiffer test on the spread.

La Tech is 1-0 ATS, but their first game against Texas A&M was postponed. And their lone win came against another double digit winner from last year Houston. So something had to give. Before you get too excited about La Tech, just remember they gave up 40 first downs and nearly 700 yards to Houston. This team is due for a fall ATS in 2012. So be warned of taking La Tech as a big favorite or a short dog. Houston I’m kind of torn about. They are also due for a fall. But I also think they are a seriously undervalued team right now. As big dogs, Houston could be a good play (as a possible “play on” against UCLA Saturday). But as a big favorite, they won’t be the good bet they were last year with Keenum at QB. Right now Houston stands at 0-2 ATS, so they are probably due for an ATS win.

As it stands now, the teams who are 2-0 ATS are Arizona State (this could be a surprise team this year), Ball St., UCONN (one of my preseason spread beaters), Ga Tech (this team was also on my watch list), Iowa St., Kansas St (due for a non cover?) ULL, Miss. St, Ole Miss, Northern Ill, Ohio (one of my preaseason ATS beaters), Purdue (another team that could surprise this season), SDST, SJST, Texas Tech, Toledo, UCF, UCLA (a team that was on my watch list), Utah State, WKU (probably due for a non cover).


Arizona State @ Missouri – GoSooners told me I wasn’t allowed to bet on my Alma Mater on the road no matter how good they looked the week before against a good Illinois defense. But just in case anyone else is liking the Devils (or Mizzou), the Missouri OL is a mess right now.

Related Content

Big 12 Football: Most Improved & Overrated Teams

Big 12 Football: 2012′s Breakout Stars?

Texas is Phil Steele’s No. 1 surprise team of 2012

Big 12 Football: Who Will Challenge OU For the Conferece 

The Big 12: OU or Texas in 2012?

Get more great college football analysis over at Saturday Edge.


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