The 2012 bowl season has arrived. I hope that the boys and I can produce plenty of winners for everyone. I ended the 2012 regular season 85-71 (54.49%), certainly not the best season of my college football handicapping career, but a winning regular season nonetheless.
On a brighter note, after reviewing all my weekly picks/threads, I discovered that I ended up going 8-0 on my Best Bets (1.5 units). The negative to that perfect regular season Best Bet record will be that Trentmoney will use this information to further reinforce his quality theory. URGH!
Nevertheless, like Sabert, I try to wager on all the bowl games, including both the side and total on some games. However, many of them will have lower unit value. My typical wager is for 1 unit and my Best Bet wagers are for 1.5 units. During the bowl season I will wager games between .50 and 1.5 units.
Past Bowl Performences
I’ve had some awesome bowl seasons in the past. The 2007 bowl season stands out as being one of the best (26-13, +15.25 units). I was in Puerto Rico for nearly the entire bowl season and GoSooners and I were killing it. I would wake up in the morning and cap the days games, go to the beach in the afternoon and then watch games all night.
On the other hand, last year was my worst bowl season ever (18-22, -6.5 units). I have never experienced such negative variance (bad luck) in such a short period of time in my life. I believe at one point last bowl season I had lost 8 games by 13.5 points. I lost a handful of games on the very last play of the game and I also lost a few games while the other team was trying to run out the clock (Iowa v OU and Washington v Baylor come to mind).
Hopefully I used up more than my share of negative variance during last year’s bowl season and this year the ball will bounce my way more often than not. I will post the majority of my bowl plays here, but I will also have several selections in the newsletters, along with all of Trentmoney’s bowl picks.
Best of luck this bowl season everyone,
BYU – SDSU U 48.5 (1 unit)
It will be strength against strength in the Poinsettia Bowl this Thursday as SDSU’s power running game takes on the 2nd ranked run D in the country. Neither team is very good at passing the football, so I don’t expect very many explosive plays on offense. For a more detailed analysis, check out my Poinsettia Bowl write-up. Sabert also has a good write-up on this game, as does jimmyshivers.
UCF – Ball State O 61.5 (.50 units)
UCF TT O 34 (.50 units)
For a detailed write-up on this game check out Sabert’s thread. I have a few additional numbers that I found that lead me to believe this game stands a good chance of going over the number. UCF has only been held below their opponents defensive season average three times all season, and that was against Ohio State, Missouri and the first game against Tulsa. More importantly vs the 7 non-BCS conference D’s they played that allowed more than 30 ppg on defense UCF scored 56, 33, 40, 38, 35, 54, 49 = 43.57 ppg vs teams that allow 36.35 = + 7.22 …. Ball State is allowing 31.50 ppg.
The one big negative to this game going over is the UCF defense, it’s pretty good. They held 10 of 13 offenses below their season scoring avg by an avg of 5.24 pts (allowing 22.46 vs teams that avg 27.70). However Ball State averages 35 ppg vs teams that allow 30.60 (+4.40), they’ve only been held below their opponent’s defensive season average in 4 of 12 games and the only two teams to hold Ball St below 30 points was Clemson (27) & NIU (23).
Ball State 27
2012 Bowl Picks (Set 1)
2012 Bowl Picks (Set 2)
2012 Bowl Picks (Set 3)