For the third week in a row, we offer this modest attempt at fantasy analysis.
This week offers two games, Kansas City at New England and Tampa Bay at Green Bay, with promising fantasy possibilities, as the favored team in both cases (the Patriots and Packers) also has a poor defense (26th and 28th, respectively, per GWP). As such, when the Chiefs and Bucs turn to the pass in low-WP situations, they're likely to be more efficient than we might otherwise expect.
I'd also like to make a note on the timing of this piece: a number of commenters have noted that Saturday might be too late in the week to take advantage of fantasy analysis. The results from a poll I ran last Sunday show that about 20% of readers need to make waiver-wire adds before Saturday. If possible, I'll attempt to run this closer to mid-week in the future; however, for the remaining 80% of readers, there's also some advantage to having all the information that a week of practice and reporting can provide.
Finally, don't hesitate to make comments below, or take time to point and laugh at last week's picks.
The weekly game probabilities suggest that Kansas City has only an 8% chance of beating New England -- nor does that even account for the fact that starting quarterback Matt Cassel will miss the game after undergoing hand surgery on Monday. However, with New England likely to take an early lead, Cassel's replacement Tyler Palko (5% owned) is likely to compile a pretty substantial number of pass attempts. The fact also remains that New England has the seventh-worst defensive GWP and allows the fifth-most net yards per pass attempt (7.3) in the league. Another option at QB is Philadelphia's Vince Young (6% owned), who'll be replacing the injured Michael Vick against the Giants. Young has the capacity to gain a fair number of rushing yards, which are generally worth more than the passing kind in fantasy football.
As mentioned above, New England is likely to take a quick and commanding lead over the visiting the Kansas City Chiefs this Monday. With both BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk both questionable, however, it's very possible that a large portion of the clock-killing will be left to Danny Woodhead (22% owned). Should both Green-Ellis and Faulk be ruled out ahead, rookie Steven Ridley (5%) could also see 5-10 touches -- although that's a riskier play. Elsewhere, Maurice Morris (44%) will once again take over the injured Jahvid Best's as lead back for Detroit in their game against Carolina this weekend, for which they're heavily favored (0.79 PROB).
Dexter McCluster (37% owned) ran the ball eight times and was also targeted for eight passes in Kansas City's Week Ten loss to Denver. That he's still available in under 50% of leagues is quite surprising. Wide receivers Steve Breaston (42%) and Jon Baldwin (15%) are also likely to receive plenty of targets.
Kansas City rarely throws to their tight end, and Tampa Bay -- in a similar situation to KC against a heavily favored Green Bay team -- has a tight end in Kellen Winslow who's owned in about three-quarters of all leagues. Philadelphia, however, could find themselves passing against a not-excellent (19th by GWP) Giants defense, and tight end Brent Celek (36% owned) has averaged 8.5 targets per game over Philly's last four games.
St. Louis (10% owned) and Oakland (21%) have game probabilities of 0.63 and 0.62, respectively, against their Week Eleven opponents. Given that Oakland's projection doesn't account for recently installed starter Carson Palmer -- averaging a very competent 9.2 net yards per attempt (155 NY/A+) in a small sample -- it's likely their chances are even higher. Nor ought Minnesota's offense (ranked 25th per GWP) represent a particular threat -- with or without Christian Ponder.
A glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.