On Wednesday, Monmouth University released an Iowa poll results which showed Trump coming in at 48% with Biden at 45%, a result within the poll’s margin of error.
In 2016, Trump won Iowa by 9 points, which indicates a 6 point swing in favor of Biden, and while this is good for Democrats, it is not better than what was seen earlier in the summer. It could even be worse.
A June poll by Des Moines Register showed Trump at 44% to Biden’s 43%, another result within the margin of error. However, this poll had an 8 point swing compared to the 2016 election results.
Des Moines Register reported: “When you look at the average state poll that called cellphones, you see no sign that Trump is doing worse than in the early summer. In the average state poll in June, Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton's margin by 8 points. The margin was 8 points since July as well. This would translate to a 10-point Biden lead nationally.”
These results show an improvement in Biden’s performance compared to earlier in the year, and similar polls show he was up approximately 7 or 8 points nationally. However, Biden’s June momentum seems to have stopped.
Biden’s advantage seemed to widen when the George Floyd protests began, but Trump’s position hasn’t worsened.
National polling showed that Biden widened the margin at the end of May and beginning of June, but Trump has held his ground since then.
Cell phone polls in June put Biden at an 11 point lead, a margin that remained constant in July. An average of all polls put Biden’s margin at 8 points in June, and this remained true in July.
Poll aggregators have dropped the margin from 10 points to somewhere close to 7 to 9 points.
Trump’s overall job approval rating declined from April to June, with the drop accelerating at the end of May.
However, his approval rating among voters had never gone below 40%, and his current approval rating is 41% or 42% depending on your computation method. His net approval rating, which was once at -15 points, is now around -12 or -13 points.
This is not much of an improvement, but shows that Trump’s position has stabilized, or in some cases, improved by a few points.
However, the current margin is not wide enough to make Biden a sure winner, but his relatively steady lead seems to suggest that he is a clear favorite.
Sources: America Now