The Five States Trump Must Win To Beat Clinton


Now that Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, there's one question on everyone's mind: Will he be America's next president?

Since Trump's primary competition, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, recently bowed out of the race, the often unpredictable candidate is now the last Republican in the race and is expected to receive the nomination.

But despite locking in his candidacy so early in the contest, Trump remains a widely polarizing candidate. His favorability ratings remain low, with an average of 60 percent of American voters saying that they do not see him in a positive light, according to the Huffington Post Pollster. His ratings are even worse than Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, who has an average of 54.2 percent of Americans saying they dislike her.

Most polls show Trump losing to both Clinton and fellow Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders by at least a few points – Sanders typically beats him by a higher margin – although some polls show Trump beating Clinton. But can the controversial candidate make his way into the White House?

According to USA Today, Trump has a fighting chance at the White House if he pulls out some tough wins in five key states.

He would have to win Arizona, a state that typically votes conservative and has 11 electoral votes up for grabs in the general. However, Clinton currently leads in the state by a few points, and Trump would have to win over Latino voters, a demographic with which he is not very popular.

Next, he would have to flip Florida and Ohio, two swing states totaling 47 electoral votes. Trump trails Clinton in each state by fewer than four points. He has roots in Florida and polls well with blue-collar voters, which comprise a large voting bloc in Ohio.

Trump would also have to hold North Carolina. The state went for Obama in 2008, but not 2012. Clinton has a slight edge in the polls there currently, but Trump will need those 15 electoral votes.

Finally, he would have to flip Pennsylvania, a typically Democrat-voting state that prefers Clinton by 7.4 points, although USA Today speculates that Trump could make up that ground by reaching out to white working-class voters.

Sources: USA Today, Huffington Post Pollster (2) (3) / Photo credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr

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