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Poll: Clinton Leading Trump In Swing States

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Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in every swing state, according to a new poll.

Ballotpedia shows Clinton beating Trump in Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.

Of those states, only North Carolina voted for a Republican in the 2012 election. The state has only voted for a Democrat once in the last 36 years, when it voted for Barack Obama in 2008. The last time North Carolina voted Democrat was 1980.  In the Ballotpedia poll, however, North Carolina appears to be a safe bet for Clinton, who leads Trump by 10 points.

In Florida, arguably the most famous of the swing states due to the contested results in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore, also seems favorable to Clinton, who leads Trump by 13 points. If those numbers held, it would be a remarkably lopsided victory as yet unseen in the Sunshine State, where the voting has been extremely close in recent elections, with the biggest gap since 1996 being only 6 percent when President Bill Clinton beat Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas.

Clinton's biggest lead is 17 percent in Michigan, which is a pretty reliable state for the Democrats and one of the least likeliest, along with Pennsylvania, to swing into the Republican column. The last time Michigan went to a Republican was in 1988 when George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis.

However, Clinton narrowly lost Michigan's Democratic primary to Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, largely because of independent voters, showing that she has some vulnerability in a state hit hard by manufacturing job losses.

A Quinnipiac poll released the same day showed a much tighter race with Clinton beating Trump 42 to 40 percent and, when third parties were included, 39 to 37 percent. But that poll didn't account for individual states, which is a key factor in the electoral college race.

Poll analyst Nate Silver gave Clinton a 79 percent chance of winning the presidential election and Trump a 20 percent chance, but admitted that there's still some time before voters make their decision.

“Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC. “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”

Sources: Ballotpedia, Quinnipiac, ABC via Politico / Photo credit: Hillary for Iowa/Wikipedia

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