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Analysis: New Hampshire Could Determine Next President

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New Hampshire voters could decide the next president, according to a poll analysis by FiveThirtyEight.

The Granite State only counts for four electoral votes in the presidential election, but those four could prove to be crucial if current polling reflects the voting result on Nov. 8.

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is polling slightly behind Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in several major swing states, including Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina.

But Clinton could still lose those states and win the presidency as long as she wins the states she leads in, including New Hampshire, which would give her the four electoral votes she needs to get to 272, the winning number for the presidency. However, New Hampshire is unpredictable and Trump is behind Clinton by only 3 percent there, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Other polls show a more comfortable margin for Clinton. A Monmouth University poll had her ahead of Trump by 9 points, 47 percent to 38 percent.

Other states could be “tipping-points,” as well, including Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If Trump wins all the states he currently leads in and manages to win either one of those three states, he would defeat Clinton in November.

Trump's best chance of those three could be Pennsylvania, where he is popular in the state's coal country.

"This country is in trouble," said Jim Popielarcheck, a 56-year-old coal miner and registered Democrat.  He voted for President Barack Obama in 2008, but voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 after he believed Obama was attacking coal miners, reported the Boston Globe. "Trump says, 'Don't worry, coal miners, I'm coming.' Voting for that or voting for somebody who wants to close me down is not a choice."

Clinton, meanwhile, has not been popular among coal miners ever since she said she would put them "out of work” and replace their jobs with more environmentally-friendly occupations during a March town hall, reported Politico.

The comments drew the ire of coal miners, who wrote a letter to Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, an important coal state, saying Clinton was not welcome to their town of Logan, West Virginia, for a rally.

“Mrs. Clinton’s anti-coal messages are the last thing our suffering town needs at this point,” the letter read. “The policies that have been championed by people like Mrs. Clinton have all but devastated our fair town, and honestly, enough is enough.”

Despite Clinton's unpopularity in coal country, she has a 6 percent lead in Pennsylvania among polling averages, according to Real Clear Politics.

Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Boston Globe, Politico, Real Clear Politics / Photo credit: Mark Buckawicki/Wikimedia Commons

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