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538 Gives Clinton Roughly 70% Chance Of Winning

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Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has a 71.8 percent chance of winning the presidency, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has only a 28.2 percent chance of winning. In order to defeat Clinton, he would have to pull upsets in several states where he is polling behind the former Secretary of State.

FiveThirtyEight has Clinton winning all the major swing states except for Ohio, where Trump has led in polls for several weeks and has a 64.3 percent chance of winning.

If Clinton takes Florida, which FiveThirtyEight gives her a 54.6 percent chance of winning, she'll all but destroy Trump's chance of winning the necessary 270 electoral college votes to win the White House.

If Trump manages to win Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, however, he would edge out Clinton in electoral college votes and become the next president.

While Trump has nearly a 30 percent chance of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight, other poll averages give him much less of a chance.

Polling averages on Huffington Post, which puts a disclaimer at the end of each article about Trump that describes him as a “xenophobe” and “racist,” give Clinton a 98 percent chance of winning the presidency.

Real Clear Politics polling averages give Clinton a 3 percent edge over Trump, 45 to 42 percent.

Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, D.C., has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 and he thinks Trump might win.

“The polls are often wrong,” he told the Washington Post.

Lichtman uses a model based on 13 true/false statements that determine whether or not the incumbent party stays in power or a thirst for change throws them out.

Based on this model, Trump wins. But the professor admits that Trump is unlike any presidential candidate before him, making it difficult to trust the model in this case.

“So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory,” Lichtman said. “But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory, because I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor.”

Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, Washington Post (2)/ Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr

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