MMA Analysis: Mark Hominick vs. Jose Aldo at UFC 129

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MMA Valor’s esteemed owner Josh Wood and I are taking opposing views on the big fights this Saturday night.  We’ll tell you why a fighter can win the fight, and let you pick your own winner.  In this fight matchup, I’ve got Mark “The Machine” Hominick and Josh has Jose Aldo.

Ok, this one is a little tougher for me.  Jose Aldo is one of the best in the world, perhaps THE best in the game, but on any given night, a fighter can lose.  What can you look for here?  Mark Hominick is the best boxer in the division.  He’s trained by standup maven Shawn Tompkins and that spells trouble for his opponents. 

Mark’s standup has been crisp and clean in his last handful of fights, and if he lands on Jose, Jose will nap, no doubt about that.   Mark can finish anyone in the world, and in this fight, he’ll have that opportunity as Aldo will likely stand and trade, looking to land his debilitating leg kicks.

The problem with throwing repeated low kicks at Hominick is you drop your hands from time to time while throwing them.  Hominick will counter one of them and land flush on Aldo, hurting him.  From there Hominick will swarm and finish Aldo, taking the title from him.

The other factor that makes it easier to take Hominick here is that Aldo has been on the shelf for the past seven or so months and missed his last fight due to a neck injury.  He could have some ring rust, and this is a hell of a way to make your UFC debut, in front of 55,000 fans in Toronto.  It is possible that going from the WEC to the largest setting in the history of MMA could prove a little unnerving for the 23-year-old Aldo.

In Aldo’s last outing, he fought in front of 3800 fans at WEC 51.  That wouldn’t even be a drop in the Rogers Centre bucket.  I think the atmosphere, the layoff and Hominick’s standing prowess all add up to an upset victory and new UFC Featherweight Champion. 

What you think Josh?

You make some great points in regards to ring rust which is a real thing and could play into the fight in the early rounds. I doubt any of the fighters on the UFC 129 card has ever fought in front of 55,000 crazed fans so that’s a wash in my opinion.

Aldo is an impressive striker with power in his kicks and punches, having 12 wins via (T)KO in his career. What many forget is that Aldo is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt because of that striking fans have seen from him since his WEC debut.

Expect Aldo early on in the fight to strike with Hominick as he did in the WEC, but should that plan not work to his liking the fight will go to the canvas. Hominick has been submitted five times in his career and you have to know that Team Black House has worked on this in training. Aldo has fought many guys with a diverse range of skills and factor in training with the high level talent at Black House, Hominick isn’t going surprise Aldo Saturday Night.

Expect Aldo to walk out of the Octagon with his belt drapped over his shoulder after he quiets the crowd by finishing Hominick late in the 2nd round .

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