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NFL Week 5 Team Efficiency Rankings

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A lot of movement in the rankings this week. The Giants catapult to #2 on the backs of the Bears who fall from #1 to #9 thanks to that historic beat-down Sunday night. That kind of performance will be hard to repeat

San Diego's offense does appear to be missing Vincent Jackson one bit, and their pass defense is giving up the second fewest yards per attempt. The model heavily regresses team stats, particularly so early in the season. Nevertheless, the Chargers look like a team about to rattle off a bunch of wins.

Two of the curiosities are the Cowboys and Redksins at #4 and #5. To figure out whey they're so high, all you need to do is scroll down to the team stats at the bottom of the post. Both teams are throwing the ball very well, and they've played against tougher-than-average opponents. Keep in mind these rankings aren't about who has won the most games in the past, but who is likely to win the most games in the future.

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.

Click on the table headers to sort.

 

RANK TEAM LAST WK GWP Opp GWP O RANK D RANK
1 SD 2 0.78 0.45 1 6
2 NYG 13 0.68 0.52 5 4
3 KC 4 0.65 0.55 10 3
4 DAL 3 0.65 0.61 9 8
5 WAS 10 0.64 0.53 2 13
6 HOU 7 0.61 0.55 4 20
7 BAL 15 0.60 0.55 22 1
8 PIT 9 0.59 0.47 12 7
9 CHI 1 0.59 0.56 14 9
10 NYJ 14 0.59 0.53 8 15
11 MIA 18 0.57 0.49 16 12
12 NE 16 0.56 0.52 3 29
13 IND 8 0.56 0.53 7 24
14 GB 5 0.56 0.47 6 17
15 PHI 12 0.55 0.48 19 5
16 TEN 19 0.54 0.52 13 2
17 CIN 22 0.54 0.51 18 16
18 SEA 6 0.50 0.49 24 10
19 CLE 17 0.48 0.55 11 28
20 DEN 11 0.47 0.49 15 26
21 MIN 23 0.41 0.42 28 14
22 CAR 29 0.40 0.49 32 11
23 TB 24 0.40 0.49 20 31
24 BUF 25 0.39 0.57 31 19
25 SF 21 0.38 0.46 27 22
26 JAC 27 0.38 0.59 26 25
27 NO 26 0.36 0.39 17 32
28 ATL 28 0.35 0.40 21 30
29 DET 20 0.34 0.53 23 27
30 OAK 30 0.34 0.44 25 23
31 STL 32 0.31 0.44 30 21
32 ARI 31 0.28 0.45 29 18




Each team's efficiency stats are listed below.

TEAM OPASS ORUN OINT% OFUM% DPASS DRUN DINT% PENRATE
ARI 4.2 5.4 4.7 1.3 6.3 4.4 2.8 0.63
ATL 5.9 3.9 2.0 0.4 6.5 4.6 6.2 0.38
BAL 5.9 3.0 4.1 1.0 4.4 4.3 1.0 0.41
BUF 4.5 4.7 3.7 0.6 7.0 4.6 0.0 0.31
CAR 4.8 4.0 5.1 2.9 6.1 3.3 3.6 0.43
CHI 6.5 3.3 3.4 0.0 6.2 3.5 2.5 0.40
CIN 6.2 3.3 1.9 1.9 5.5 4.1 4.4 0.41
CLE 6.1 4.1 3.3 2.1 7.1 3.8 2.4 0.47
DAL 7.2 3.5 1.6 0.0 6.5 3.9 2.2 0.50
DEN 7.3 2.2 1.7 1.3 6.8 4.1 2.4 0.46
DET 5.5 3.7 4.0 1.5 7.2 4.8 4.2 0.50
GB 7.1 3.9 4.1 0.5 5.0 5.2 3.8 0.53
HOU 6.9 5.5 3.1 0.5 7.8 3.6 1.2 0.30
IND 7.6 3.2 0.6 1.4 6.9 5.0 2.5 0.37
JAC 5.3 4.1 4.3 1.0 8.3 4.3 2.9 0.39
KC 6.1 4.6 3.9 0.0 6.0 3.2 1.8 0.28
MIA 6.3 4.0 3.6 1.5 5.5 4.2 2.5 0.24
MIN 5.4 5.0 6.2 0.7 5.8 3.6 2.1 0.57
NE 7.0 4.3 1.6 0.0 6.8 4.5 4.6 0.35
NO 6.5 3.1 1.3 0.9 6.8 4.5 2.7 0.30
NYG 6.7 4.7 4.5 1.9 4.7 3.8 4.9 0.50
NYJ 6.2 5.1 0.0 1.0 6.1 3.2 2.7 0.60
OAK 5.4 4.5 4.1 0.9 5.5 5.3 2.1 0.61
PHI 6.0 5.5 0.7 1.0 4.9 4.4 4.8 0.62
PIT 6.0 4.3 4.9 1.6 5.5 2.6 3.9 0.36
SD 8.5 4.5 2.8 1.9 4.5 3.8 5.6 0.37
SF 5.5 3.8 4.6 0.5 6.6 3.8 3.1 0.40
SEA 5.8 3.6 4.7 0.0 6.5 2.7 2.9 0.35
STL 5.2 3.5 3.8 0.0 5.9 4.6 2.7 0.51
TB 5.9 3.4 2.2 0.7 6.6 4.8 7.1 0.36
TEN 5.8 4.3 3.1 1.5 5.0 3.7 2.6 0.69
WAS 7.3 4.3 1.7 0.6 6.5 3.7 1.7 0.38
Avg 6.1 4.1 3.2 1.0 6.2 4.1 3.1 0.44