NFL
NFL

NFL Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 16

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Not much movement at this point in the season. The most significant exception is NE, which vaults from from #5 to #2.

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability.

The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort.


RANK TEAM LAST WK GWP Opp GWP O RANK D RANK
1 SD 1 0.85 0.44 2 1
2 NE 5 0.73 0.57 1 19
3 PIT 3 0.71 0.52 7 2
4 NYG 2 0.71 0.49 8 3
5 GB 4 0.71 0.51 6 9
6 PHI 6 0.70 0.52 3 10
7 BAL 8 0.63 0.51 12 8
8 MIA 7 0.62 0.56 22 7
9 IND 9 0.58 0.54 14 13
10 TEN 12 0.58 0.55 20 4
11 NYJ 11 0.58 0.56 25 5
12 KC 13 0.56 0.45 15 11
13 CHI 15 0.56 0.51 29 6
14 HOU 10 0.55 0.58 4 28
15 DAL 16 0.53 0.55 5 27
16 MIN 14 0.50 0.55 24 14
17 BUF 19 0.49 0.56 23 21
18 NO 17 0.48 0.40 9 22
19 CLE 18 0.47 0.50 19 18
20 ATL 20 0.42 0.45 17 23
21 WAS 22 0.42 0.55 18 29
22 OAK 23 0.41 0.49 13 17
23 TB 21 0.41 0.40 10 30
24 CIN 24 0.39 0.54 26 24
25 SF 26 0.38 0.44 21 15
26 DET 25 0.37 0.56 27 20
27 JAC 27 0.37 0.57 16 31
28 DEN 28 0.33 0.48 11 32
29 SEA 29 0.30 0.42 28 25
30 STL 30 0.25 0.39 30 16
31 CAR 31 0.23 0.43 32 12
32 ARI 32 0.19 0.40 31 26


Core team efficiency stats:

 

TEAM OPASS ORUN OINT% OFUM% DPASS DRUN DINT% PENRATE
ARI 4.8 4.4 3.5 1.1 6.5 4.4 3.2 0.44
ATL 6.0 3.9 1.8 0.3 6.3 4.6 4.0 0.32
BAL 6.4 3.7 1.8 0.7 5.7 4.0 2.7 0.35
BUF 5.8 4.3 3.1 1.2 6.2 4.6 2.3 0.32
CAR 4.4 4.2 4.4 2.3 5.9 4.0 3.7 0.43
CHI 6.0 3.8 4.5 0.2 5.6 3.8 3.7 0.41
CIN 5.8 3.7 3.4 1.1 6.5 4.6 3.1 0.35
CLE 6.0 4.1 3.0 1.8 6.4 4.1 3.9 0.35
DAL 7.0 4.0 3.3 0.5 7.1 4.3 3.5 0.44
DEN 6.4 3.8 1.7 1.5 7.1 4.6 1.9 0.48
DET 5.7 4.0 2.6 0.8 6.4 4.6 2.5 0.51
GB 6.9 3.9 2.5 0.4 5.4 4.6 4.0 0.32
HOU 6.5 4.7 2.1 0.6 7.4 3.9 2.2 0.34
IND 6.7 3.6 2.5 0.5 6.1 4.7 2.2 0.35
JAC 6.1 4.7 4.4 1.1 7.6 4.6 2.7 0.35
KC 6.0 4.8 1.2 0.5 5.8 4.2 2.3 0.36
MIA 6.0 3.7 3.8 1.4 5.8 3.6 2.5 0.28
MIN 5.8 4.4 5.6 0.9 6.1 3.9 2.9 0.39
NE 7.1 4.3 1.1 0.1 6.5 4.2 3.9 0.37
NO 6.7 4.0 3.3 0.7 5.8 4.4 2.1 0.42
NYG 6.8 4.7 4.2 1.3 5.3 4.3 3.3 0.40
NYJ 5.7 4.3 2.5 1.2 5.6 3.6 1.5 0.48
OAK 6.2 4.9 3.8 1.1 6.2 4.5 2.0 0.62
PHI 6.8 5.5 1.9 0.7 6.1 4.0 4.8 0.56
PIT 6.6 4.2 2.2 1.0 5.6 3.0 3.2 0.49
SD 8.0 3.9 2.4 1.2 5.0 3.7 3.2 0.37
SF 6.0 4.1 3.2 0.8 6.6 3.5 2.8 0.48
SEA 5.9 3.7 4.1 0.5 6.6 4.0 2.1 0.45
STL 5.2 3.8 2.7 0.3 5.8 4.6 2.6 0.43
TB 6.2 4.5 1.4 0.9 6.1 4.9 3.9 0.44
TEN 6.2 4.4 3.3 0.8 5.9 3.9 2.9 0.51
WAS 6.1 4.3 3.3 0.9 6.9 4.8 2.2 0.32
Avg 6.2 4.2 3.0 0.9 6.2 4.2 2.9 0.41