NFL
NFL

NFL Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 15

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New England's offense claims the number one spot this week, but their early season defensive woes are holding them back.

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability.

The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort.

RANK TEAM LAST WK GWP Opp GWP O RANK D RANK
1 SD 1 0.83 0.44 2 1
2 NYG 4 0.73 0.47 9 3
3 PIT 3 0.72 0.51 7 2
4 GB 2 0.72 0.49 5 8
5 NE 5 0.72 0.56 1 23
6 PHI 6 0.68 0.51 3 9
7 MIA 7 0.63 0.56 20 7
8 BAL 8 0.62 0.51 11 10
9 IND 9 0.60 0.55 14 11
10 HOU 14 0.58 0.57 4 27
11 NYJ 12 0.57 0.55 26 4
12 TEN 16 0.55 0.55 22 5
13 KC 11 0.54 0.47 15 14
14 MIN 10 0.53 0.54 21 12
15 CHI 13 0.53 0.51 28 6
16 DAL 17 0.51 0.56 6 28
17 NO 15 0.51 0.39 8 20
18 CLE 18 0.47 0.50 24 15
19 BUF 19 0.44 0.55 25 24
20 ATL 20 0.43 0.47 13 25
21 TB 22 0.43 0.41 10 26
22 WAS 21 0.42 0.55 17 30
23 SF 25 0.40 0.41 18 16
24 OAK 27 0.40 0.50 16 17
25 CIN 23 0.38 0.55 29 22
26 DET 28 0.36 0.57 27 19
27 DEN 24 0.34 0.47 12 31
28 JAC 26 0.34 0.56 19 32
29 SEA 29 0.30 0.43 23 29
30 STL 30 0.27 0.39 30 18
31 CAR 31 0.23 0.46 32 13
32 ARI 32 0.20 0.43 31 21


And here are each team's efficiency stats.

TEAM OPASS ORUN OINT% OFUM% DPASS DRUN DINT% PENRATE
ARI 4.8 4.5 3.6 1.1 6.5 4.4 3.3 0.45
ATL 6.1 4.0 1.7 0.1 6.5 4.6 3.8 0.32
BAL 6.4 3.6 1.8 0.7 5.8 4.1 2.7 0.33
BUF 5.7 4.4 3.0 1.3 6.3 4.7 2.3 0.32
CAR 4.4 4.3 4.7 2.3 6.0 4.1 3.8 0.42
CHI 5.9 3.8 4.5 0.2 5.7 3.7 3.3 0.39
CIN 5.6 3.6 3.6 1.2 6.5 4.6 3.3 0.34
CLE 5.9 4.1 3.2 1.9 6.3 4.1 4.1 0.36
DAL 6.9 4.0 3.6 0.4 7.2 4.3 3.4 0.43
DEN 6.4 3.8 1.8 1.6 7.0 4.5 1.5 0.46
DET 5.6 3.8 2.8 0.9 6.4 4.5 2.7 0.52
GB 7.0 4.0 2.5 0.5 5.5 4.5 4.2 0.34
HOU 6.7 4.8 2.2 0.6 7.4 3.8 2.1 0.33
IND 6.8 3.4 2.6 0.6 6.0 4.8 2.2 0.34
JAC 6.0 4.8 4.6 0.9 7.8 4.4 3.0 0.34
KC 6.1 4.8 1.1 0.6 6.0 4.3 2.1 0.36
MIA 6.1 3.7 3.9 1.5 5.7 3.6 2.4 0.28
MIN 6.0 4.4 5.3 0.8 6.1 3.9 2.8 0.39
NE 7.3 4.2 1.2 0.2 6.6 4.2 4.0 0.36
NO 6.8 4.1 3.4 0.7 5.8 4.3 2.2 0.41
NYG 6.8 4.9 4.3 1.4 5.2 4.0 3.3 0.41
NYJ 5.7 4.4 2.7 1.3 5.7 3.4 1.6 0.50
OAK 6.0 4.8 3.5 1.1 6.2 4.6 2.1 0.61
PHI 6.9 5.3 1.8 0.7 6.1 4.1 5.0 0.59
PIT 6.8 4.1 2.4 1.1 5.6 2.9 3.4 0.50
SD 7.9 4.1 2.5 1.3 5.1 3.7 3.2 0.38
SF 6.2 4.2 3.2 0.8 6.4 3.7 3.0 0.48
SEA 6.0 3.7 4.0 0.5 6.7 4.1 2.1 0.44
STL 5.4 3.8 2.5 0.3 5.9 4.5 2.5 0.43
TB 6.2 4.3 1.5 1.0 6.1 4.7 4.3 0.44
TEN 6.1 4.4 3.2 0.9 6.0 4.0 3.0 0.50
WAS 6.1 4.3 3.1 1.0 6.8 4.9 2.3 0.33
Avg 6.2 4.2 3.0 0.9 6.2 4.2 3.0 0.41