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NFL Team Efficiency Rankings: Week 12

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There's a ranking I never thought I'd see. Peyton Manning's offense is ranked 21st in the league in efficiency. Last week, I got a few questions about how that could be, and the answer is opponent strength.

The Colts have put up some slightly above average passing numbers, but they've been against some very weak defenses, including HOU twice, JAC, WAS, and DEN. Even NE's defense is ranked 23rd, giving up 7.0 net yards per pass attempt. 

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

Click on the table headers to sort.

RANK TEAM LAST WK GWP Opp GWP O RANK D RANK
1 SD 1 0.82 0.41 1 2
2 PIT 2 0.78 0.52 4 1
3 GB 4 0.74 0.53 5 8
4 PHI 5 0.71 0.51 3 5
5 NYG 3 0.68 0.49 7 6
6 MIA 6 0.67 0.59 17 9
7 TEN 7 0.64 0.57 12 4
8 BAL 8 0.61 0.51 15 13
9 NE 12 0.59 0.60 6 23
10 NYJ 10 0.58 0.53 20 7
11 KC 9 0.58 0.44 14 12
12 IND 11 0.57 0.53 21 10
13 MIN 13 0.54 0.54 18 16
14 CHI 19 0.54 0.49 29 3
15 HOU 16 0.53 0.55 2 31
16 NO 14 0.52 0.40 11 18
17 DAL 17 0.52 0.55 8 24
18 CLE 15 0.50 0.54 22 14
19 ATL 20 0.47 0.48 13 22
20 CIN 18 0.45 0.53 25 21
21 WAS 21 0.45 0.55 16 27
22 TB 23 0.44 0.39 10 28
23 BUF 26 0.42 0.55 24 25
24 JAC 27 0.38 0.57 19 30
25 DEN 22 0.37 0.51 9 32
26 SF 25 0.35 0.41 23 17
27 DET 28 0.34 0.54 28 19
28 OAK 24 0.31 0.47 27 15
29 SEA 29 0.27 0.42 26 26
30 STL 31 0.23 0.38 31 20
31 CAR 30 0.22 0.48 32 11
32 ARI 32 0.18 0.44 30 29


And here are each team's efficiency stats.

TEAM OPASS ORUN OINT% OFUM% DPASS DRUN DINT% PENRATE
ARI 5.0 4.3 3.7 1.0 7.0 4.4 2.8 0.45
ATL 6.2 4.1 1.3 0.2 6.7 4.3 4.3 0.32
BAL 6.6 3.7 2.1 0.9 5.9 4.2 3.0 0.36
BUF 5.7 4.5 3.3 1.1 6.4 4.7 1.3 0.32
CAR 4.4 3.8 5.0 2.7 6.0 4.0 3.4 0.42
CHI 5.7 3.8 4.9 0.2 5.4 3.5 4.0 0.41
CIN 6.0 3.8 3.3 1.4 6.4 4.4 3.5 0.37
CLE 6.1 4.1 3.1 1.7 6.5 4.0 4.0 0.39
DAL 7.0 3.7 3.8 0.2 6.9 4.3 2.5 0.49
DEN 6.8 3.3 1.5 1.4 7.4 4.4 2.0 0.48
DET 5.6 3.5 2.5 1.0 6.2 4.6 2.8 0.56
GB 6.9 4.1 2.7 0.4 5.5 4.5 4.2 0.34
HOU 6.9 4.9 2.1 0.6 7.7 4.0 1.6 0.32
IND 6.7 3.6 1.6 0.7 6.0 5.0 2.7 0.36
JAC 6.3 4.4 5.1 1.1 7.9 4.2 2.8 0.35
KC 6.5 4.8 1.4 0.6 6.0 4.1 1.8 0.37
MIA 6.3 3.8 3.7 1.4 5.8 3.9 2.3 0.28
MIN 6.2 4.5 5.1 0.8 6.4 3.7 2.5 0.41
NE 6.6 4.2 1.5 0.2 7.0 4.1 3.3 0.39
NO 6.7 3.9 3.4 0.7 5.6 4.2 1.9 0.39
NYG 6.9 4.5 4.5 1.8 5.7 3.7 3.2 0.45
NYJ 6.2 4.4 2.1 1.5 5.9 3.5 1.4 0.52
OAK 5.5 4.8 3.5 1.2 5.9 4.6 1.7 0.67
PHI 6.7 5.4 1.2 0.6 5.7 4.0 5.4 0.63
PIT 7.1 4.1 3.0 1.0 5.7 2.9 3.4 0.45
SD 8.1 4.0 2.5 1.7 5.3 3.6 2.8 0.40
SF 6.1 3.9 3.3 0.9 6.3 3.7 2.4 0.54
SEA 5.9 3.5 2.9 0.4 6.8 3.9 2.3 0.47
STL 5.1 3.8 2.4 0.2 5.9 4.2 2.2 0.50
TB 6.4 4.3 1.6 0.8 6.1 4.8 4.8 0.41
TEN 6.4 4.5 2.6 1.1 5.9 3.9 3.7 0.54
WAS 6.3 4.1 3.3 1.1 6.7 5.1 2.5 0.35
Avg 6.3 4.1 2.9 1.0 6.3 4.1 2.9 0.43