Several weeks ago Chris Copeland of CopeMoney.com provided us with some great answers to our college football handicapping Q & A, including a few teams that he believes are overvalued and undervalued this college football season.
Chris has graciously offered to handicap a game each week for The Saturday Edge audience, so I wanted to provide everyone with a little more information on his handicapping philosophy and how he goes about picking college football games.
I go about looking at games perhaps different than other handicappers as I am more of a situational bettor than a “stats” bettor. Looking at stats is important and I do use stats in my handicapping, but these are still 18-22 year old kids and it’s tough to predict how they will act in certain situations.
Letdowns or sandwich games or look-ahead games certainly do exist and I do my best to exploit certain match-ups pertaining to those types of situations while handicapping certain games.
I value public perception. Meaning, I want to know which teams the public loves. The worst thing you can do as a bettor is rely on how a team looked the previous week when making a decision to bet them the following week.
Words I live by: A team is never as strong or as weak as they looked the last time they played. I use that each week in figuring out which teams to bet on or bet against.
I love to listen to Podcasts or TV shows with “experts” talking about how certain teams really stood out to them or how they think Team X is a solid ball club. I used to get mad while watching, screaming “No, you’re an idiot” but now I get it. I want to see what the public thinks about certain teams and I have no issue with fading teams that people love.
I also look at how a line moves. I look at line moves, especially early in the week, to see if a line moves towards or against a public play. Meaning if a ranked road favorite is laying points to a unranked home dog, and that line starts to shrink, I’ll give that game a closer look.
This ties into the point above in terms of public perception. You want to always be ahead of curve when gambling. A lot of my plays are not what you’d call “popular” but they get the job done.
Now, not every situation works or cashes every time, but my feelings are if you can apply a potential situation and then do your due diligence on the game, it can pay off in the end.
College football picks – Week One
Georgia Tech +7 at Virginia Tech
I really like this Georgia Tech team, and more importantly, this Georgia Tech offense. It’s got experience across the board (sans WR) and should be a well oiled machine this season. On defense it returns 6 starters and should finally have enough skilled players to transform completely to the 3-4 defense. Virginia Tech, while the defense should be stout, loses a whole bunch on offense. In all, only 3 starters return including one on the offensive line. There will be growing pains with this offense until QB Logan Thomas finds playmakers at RB and WR. I see this as a very defensive game with VT’s offense really struggling in the early going. It’s never easy to win @VT, especially at night, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Yellow Jackets take this one outright.
Virginia Tech- 24 Georgia Tech- 23
More info about Chris
Chris does a weekly podcast on the Solid Verbal called Chris the Capper, which will be entering its 3rd year there, so give him a listen.