College Football 2012: Overvalued and Undervalued Teams. Several weeks ago I sent out a college football handicapping Q & A to several knowledgeable cappers and received the following answer to one of my questions from Chris Copeland.
Question – Do you select teams or spots in the preseason to wager on or against? If so, who is going to be overvalued and undervalued this year?
I typically try to avoid being biased to certain teams until I see them on the field. Sure, I read about them in the magazines and think I know a certain team, but I’m of the mindset where I want to see how the team performs before I put my money on them and that probably speaks to why I bet pretty light in the first two or three weeks of the season. I’m watching as much football as I can and figuring out who will be a good value or who’s being overvalued based off the first couple of weeks.
A couple of overvalued teams
Michigan - (I know, I know, MSU alum). But if you take a deeper look, UM was very fortunate to have won as many games as they did last year and they could have easily been 8-5. Hats off to Greg Mattison for the great job he did with the defense, but in 2012, UM faces Bama in Texas, and goes to ND, Nebraska- both night games and Ohio State- who will be playing their final game of the season.
On top of that, UM has a good MSU squad and at improving Purdue and Iowa. Vegas currently has the O/U at 9 wins and this seems to be a push at worst, as I don’t see, after the Bama loss, UM going 10-1 the rest of the way.
BYU - Impressed us last year as an Independent by going 10-3, but how many teams did they beat with a winning record? Two- Utah State and Tulsa in its bowl game.
Now, the schedule gets a lot harder with road games at Utah, Boise, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech and I don’t expect them to win any of those. Add in Mike Leach’s Washington State Cougars and a Utah State team that almost beat them last year, and I see a big drop off for the Cougars. BYU also only returns 11 starters. Vegas has BYU at 8.5 RS Wins and I’ve already bet the under.
A couple of undervalued teams
Clemson - Vegas has its O/U at 8.5 and I really like what their offense brings to the table (yes, even with Sammy Watkins suspended).
The defense also returns a lot of guys and that should help what was an underwhelming defense at times last year. The schedule also isn’t too bad with the only difficult road trip being FSU as Clemson gets GT, VT and South Carolina all at home.
Wisconsin - It probably goes without saying considering OSU and PSU are ineligible, but there’s no reason why Wisconsin won’t win the Leaders division.
Vegas has the O/U at 9 wins and they really might only be an underdog in one game all season (night game at Nebraska). They get OSU and MSU at home and miss Michigan. An easy OOC schedule, per usual, should have the Badgers 4-0 going into the Nebraska tilt and they could end the year with 10 or 11 wins.
I would like to thank Chris for his participation and sharing his thoughts with us on some of 2012′s overvalued and undervalued college football teams. Please let us know who which college football teams you think will be overvalued and undervalued this season