It was another winning week for TSE cappers as we went 18-15 on posted plays and 1-0 on our newsletter picks (SabertStxVii released Florida -8 in the newsletter before putting it in his thread, so I only counted them once).
Below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total. Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total.
Arizona State +10
I jumped on this one last night. Better D getting points is always attractive to me. I hope it is not a homer pick. Devils have looked awfully impressive so far this year, but they are about to take a HUGE step up in class. Last time Ducks were in Tempe, the Devils rolled up something like 600 yards and still lost via 7 turnovers.
I haven’t reviewed this week’s numbers, but I believe SMU has the better defense and is also a potential running dog here. Houston seems to have gotten things back on track after that terrible start, but they haven’t really played anyone since that UCLA beat down.
Nebraska’s defense is terrible.
I still say Temple is not a good football team, though I have been surprised at how well they are doing in their first year back in the Big East. Major step up in class here for the Owls.
I spoke with SabertStxVii about this game this morning. Vols played Bama tough last year before their depth issues did them in. This will be the best offense Alabama has faced all season.
Washington + 7.5
Husky defense is actually playing pretty well right now as compared to last season. New DC Wilcox is making a difference. Arizona defense is terrible and despite a young and beat up OL, I believe Price and the UW offense will have a lot of success in this game.
Michigan State +10.5
I got this one last night at +10.5. I just think it is too many points in a rivalry game where the talent matchup is more or less even. Sparty also has the statistically better D, though Blue is right behind them.
Vandy shouldn’t be a TD favorite over a more talented team (though admittedly the coaches are not getting that talent to perform at Auburn). Still expect this game to be close. Auburn is definitely a potential running dog.
Fresno State -15
1-3 on the road with losses against Oregon, Tulsa and Boise State. 3-0 at home with blowout wins against Weber State, Colorado and SDSU. Surprisingly they have the second best D in the MWC. Wyoming’s defense is not good.
Stanford – California U 49
I jumped on this total as soon as they posted the number, 51.5. When I went to hit submit I got a message saying the new line was 49. Damn that is a lot of line value lost, but I still took it. Golden Bears seem to be getting things straightened out, especially on defense. Neither QB is very good, both teams like to run the football and play defense. Still wish I got the 51.5.