After the best season of TUF in recent memory, we have the TUF 14 Finale on deck with some serious profit in store. This profit will come exclusively from the top of the card though, as historically TUF undercards are money pits with betting. These fighters tend to progress so strongly after the end of the show that it’s almost impossible to gauge where they’ll be come fight time, compounded with the ridiculous pressures of your promotional debuts.
Discretion being the better part of valor, let’s instead focus on the main card and make our money off the following four bouts.
Michael Bisping -185
Jason Miller +145
Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over
With their coaching duty done, we finally get to see Mayhem step into the cage with Michael Bisping. Bisping is actually a fairly easy fighter to break down and defeat on paper, but Mayhem doesn’t really bring the tools necessary to do that here. With Mayhem’s takedowns being second class, look for a boxing match that Miller doesn’t have the power or talent to win, giving Bisping the decision win.
Tony Ferguson -260
Yves Edwards +200
Props: Ferguson by KO
You can tell when the UFC is looking to give a fighter a push, and Tony Fergueson is definitely being spoon-fed opposition. His next foe is veteran fighter Yves Edwards, who will bring his well-rounded game into this fight in hopes of upsetting the TUF 13 champion. Ferguson’s only weakness thus far has been his takedown defense, and this is an area Edwards has no business attempting to exploit. A stand-up bout with Ferguson’s lanky punching style and wall of offense leads to a blistering KO for the TUF winner, and another step towards legitimate competition.
TUF 14 Bantamweight Final
TJ Dillashaw -160
John Dodson +130
Team Alpha Males TJ Dillashaw will face Jackson Submission’s John Dodson in a somewhat predictable final for the BW division. Dillashaw brings his top-level wrestling and surprisingly powerful striking into this bout, where he’ll be tested by Dodson’s speed instinctive fighting style. This is a very winnable fight for Dodson, but he’ll need to avoid Dillashaw’s wrestling and score consistently on the feet to take that TUF contract. While Dodson’s striking and bottom game is fast-paced and capable of stopping Dillashaw, he’s also a very small BW and won’t have such an easy time avoiding Dillashaw’s takedowns and top control. A spirited effort by Dodson ends in a decision loss to superior takedowns and ride time by Dillashaw.
Diego Brandao -150
Dennis Bermudez +120
Props: Fight Ends Inside Distance
One of the best fights for potential excitement and profit, the lethal skills of Diego Brandao will take on the heavy-handed wrestling of Dennis Bermudez. This is a beautiful matchup, as both men are full-speed ahead with offense and will give each other plenty of opportunities to put the other on ice. Brandao is the much more polished fighter, but you have to give Bermudez respect as a pure athlete with a true warrior’s heart. While the straight bet is tempting, I can’t imagine this fight going to a decision with the relentless attack both men bring. A small bet on the value straight and an ITD wager could pan to serious cash if you’re on the right side of things and an easy arb otherwise.