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MMA Analysis: Jim Miller vs. Melvin Guillard at UFC on FX

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Below we’ve measured each fighter’s performance in major fights over the last 5 years and each fighter’s probability of winning this match up based on (uber nerdy) statistical analysis.

After the stats, I’ll talk about any wagers I’ll be making.

[Ed. Note: Make sure to check out all of Mike the Geek's other MMA analysis over at Breakdown Fights]

Betting Strategy:

Pick to win: Jim Miller by Decision

The statistical advantage in striking goes to Guillard, mostly because he’s a lot heavier-handed. Guillard has delivered 10.7 knockouts + knockdowns per hour, compared to just 2.4 for Miller. Guillard always has at least a puncher’s chance in every fight.

The advantage in grappling goes to Miller. Miller’s numbers haven’t been off the charts, but Guillard’s have been abysmal (ex. allowing 16 takedowns per hour, which puts him in the bottom 10% of all fighters).

Other factors: Miller has faced slightly tougher opponents (advantage Miller). Miller fights southpaw and Guillard orthodox (advantage Miller). Guillard will have a 0.5″ reach advantage, but that is insignificant.

Putting it all together, the math gives Miller the edge to win (59%).

. . . . .

Pick to bet: neither fighter (yet)

The current moneyline on Miller is -162 (= 62% chance of winning, \$100 pays \$62).

Miller’s chances of winning this fight are already baked in to the odds. Even though I think Miller is more likely to take this match up, these odds aren’t juicy enough to wager just yet, but I will bet on Miller if the odds get to -130 or better.

. . . . .

Understanding the Stats:

Data only includes fights from the last 5 years with stats in the Fight Metric database. That means fights in smaller organizations are ignored.

Results are color-coded by how the fighter compares to all other fighters in the database: the darker the green the better, the darker the red the worse. High numbers are good in the fighter’s column, low numbers are good in the fighter’s opponents column.

The “probability of win” (top of stats) is based on analysis of the stats that matter the most in determining who wins fights, and is the most important thing I look at when deciding how to wager on a fight (read more).

The “level of competition” (bottom of stats) captures how difficult the fighter’s opponents have been by showing the total 5-year W/L record of opponents at the time they fought. It’s easy to rack up sexy stats when you fight goofs (and vice-versa) so stats should be viewed with the level of competition in mind (read more).