A Democrat will win the White House in 2016, according to the latest Moody’s Analytics political model.
The presidential candidates have yet to be selected, and the election is 11 months away, but Moody’s predicts that 326 electoral votes will go to the Democratic candidate, with the Republican nominee securing 212, according to The Hill.
The model says who wins the election will come down to five swing states: Florida, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia.
The race will be close, as the Democratic advantage in each of the swing states is less than 1 percentage point, which is within the margin of error of the model.
Moody’s has correctly predicted every presidential race since Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1980, CNN noted. In August 2015, Moody's predicted the Democratic nominee would attain 270 electoral votes, with the Republican nominee acquiring 268 votes.
The latest model has added an additional 56 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee, widening the victory over the Republican candidate.
Moody’s uses political and economic strength, including job growth, hours worked, wage growth and newly created jobs quality, in each state to determine what party will win its electoral votes, The Hill explains. The most important economic variable is growth in incomes in the two years before the election. Home and gasoline prices are also considered.
Moody’s does not consider the chosen party nominee in its analysis.