NFL
NFL

NFL Playoff Shifts After Week 16

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AFC
The Jaguars choked at home against the Redskins, and their playoff chances are now down to just 13 percent ( the chance of Jacksonville beating Houston and Indy losing to Tennessee).  The Colts are heavy double digit favorites at home versus the Titans and should lock up the final playoff spot.  The Baltimore Ravens still have a 25 percent chance of taking the AFC North, but the Steelers have a 75 percent chance of beating Cleveland in Week 17 and winning the division.  Pittsburgh is a 9 point favorite in simulations against the Browns. 

AFC WEEK 16 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 16 WK 17 % DIFF WIN DIV
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 63.6% 87.0% 23.5% 87.0%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 89.7% 100.0% 10.3% 100.0%
NEW YORK JETS 96.3% 100.0% 3.7% 0.0%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 98.8% 100.0% 1.2% 25.0%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 75.0%
TENNESSEE TITANS 1.1% 0.0% -1.1% 0.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 0.0%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 11.8% 0.0% -11.8% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 36.8% 13.0% -23.8% 13.0%

 

NFC
The Giants’ loss to Green Bay combined with the Saints win over Atlanta resulted in New York going from a likely 79 percent playoff participant to a distant 18 percent heading into the final week of the season.  Chicago was very impressive against the Jets, but the Packers have their playoff lives at stake and are the 70 percent favorite at home versus the Bears.  The Giants are expected to take care of business in Week 17 at Washington winning 67 percent of simulations, but a win alone is not enough for New York.  Atlanta is the heavy home favorite playing Carolina, and despite the Week 16 loss the Falcons are 82 percent favorites to win the NFC South.

NFC WEEK 16 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 16 WK 17 % DIFF WIN DIV
GREEN BAY PACKERS 22.2% 80.0% 57.8% 0.0%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 29.1% 45.0% 15.9% 45.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS 42.8% 55.0% 12.2% 55.0%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 97.4% 100.0% 2.6% 18.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 1.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.0%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 99.9% 100.0% 0.1% 100.0%
ATLANTA FALCONS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 82.0%
CHICAGO BEARS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 28.1% 0.0% -28.1% 0.0%
NEW YORK GIANTS 79.4% 18.0% -61.4% 0.0%