NFL
NFL

NFL Playoff Shifts After Week 15

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AFC
The Chiefs had quarterback Matt Cassel back and got a dominating rushing performance this past week to put them in a great position to take the AFC West.  The Chargers are heavy favorites in both of their remaining games, and have over a 55 percent chance of closing with two wins, but they do not control their own destiny.  With the Ravens and Jets both winning the chances of an AFC West team getting a Wild Card spot is unlikely.  San Diego and Oakland both won on Sunday, but their playoff chances still dropped considerably because of the Chiefs’ win.

By beating Pittsburgh on the road, the Jets got a huge win both in terms of building confidence and securing a playoff spot.  With a likely first round match-up against the inexperienced Chiefs, the Jets are probably better off in the sixth spot than the Ravens at five who will likely have to go to Indianapolis.   The Steelers may have lost to the Jets, but they locked up a playoff spot and are still likely to win the AFC North by having a better division record than the Ravens.

The Colts regained control over the AFC South and are the 63.6 percent favorite to win the division.  The Jaguars saw their chances drop over 20 percentage points by losing in Indianapolis.  There is only a 35 percent chance that the Jags win out, and even if they do they cannot pass the Colts who have the tiebreaker.

AFC WEEK 15 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 54.4% 89.7% 35.3% 86.3%
NEW YORK JETS 75.3% 96.3% 20.9% 1.6%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 44.2% 63.6% 19.3% 63.6%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 97.3% 98.8% 1.5% 30.2%
TENNESSEE TITANS 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 99.8% 100.0% 0.2% 69.8%
BUFFALO BILLS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 98.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 0.3% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 8.7% 2.0% -6.7% 2.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 58.6% 36.8% -21.8% 35.3%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 51.8% 11.8% -40.0% 11.8%

 

NFC
The Bears hammered the Vikings to win the NFC North, and the Packers saw their playoff chances plummet as a result.  If Aaron Rodgers is healthy the Packers are a 58 percent favorite to beat the Giants in Week 16 so they still have a chance if they can beat Chicago in Week 17.  The Saints and Giants may have both lost in Week 15, but they are still clear-cut favorites for the Wild Card spots.

The three team race for the NFC West is still alive.  Amazingly the 49ers control their own destiny and there is a 28 percent chance that they win out and take the division.  The Rams are actually winning less than 50 percent of Week 16 and Week 17 simulations, but they are still ultimately winning the division 43 percent of the time which is more than the 49ers and Seahawks.

NFC WEEK 15 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
CHICAGO BEARS 61.7% 100.0% 38.3% 100.0%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 87.2% 99.9% 12.7% 99.2%
NEW YORK GIANTS 67.4% 79.4% 12.0% 0.8%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 16.2% 28.1% 11.9% 28.1%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 93.1% 97.4% 4.2% 7.9%
ATLANTA FALCONS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 92.1%
CAROLINA PANTHERS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DALLAS COWBOYS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DETROIT LIONS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS 47.2% 42.8% -4.4% 42.8%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 36.4% 29.1% -7.4% 29.1%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 53.7% 22.2% -31.6% 0.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 36.9% 1.1% -35.8% 0.0%