NFL
NFL

NFL Playoff Shifts After Week 14

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AFC
Ravens fans are not feeling very good about their Monday Night win.  Despite the poor second half play the Ravens still led the AFC in playoff probability increase at +9.5 percent thanks to losses by Wild Card competitors Texans, Jets, and Raiders.  The Ravens now have over a 97 percent chance of making the playoffs.  Pittsburgh is still the heavy 76 percent favorite to win the division, and there is only a 0.2 percent chance that the Steelers collapse and miss the playoffs.  Cleveland and Cincinnati can only play spoiler.

The Jaguars won again and saw a +9.3 percent improvement.  The Jags lead the Colts by roughly 5 percentage points, but ultimately the winner of their Week 15 match-up will more than likely be the division winner.  Houston and Tennessee have a combined 0.7 percent chance of making the playoffs and are basically eliminated.

The Jets were the biggest loser in the AFC dropping over 16 percentage points, but still have a strong 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.  There is a 12 percent chance that the Jets lose their final 3 games.  Meanwhile the Patriots are now playoff locks and virtual locks to win the AFC East.  By beating the Jets in New York, the Dolphins are still alive in the playoff race at 9.2 percent.  Buffalo may have no shot at the playoffs, but it does have a shot at beating the Jets and possibly ruining New York’s season.

San Diego improved +7 percentage points by beating the Chiefs.  The Chiefs actually saw a +1.8 percentage improvement despite the loss thanks to the Jets.  Kansas City is still the 53 percent favorite to win the division, and there is a 54 percent chance that it get the 10 wins probably needed to make the playoffs.  San Diego has a 41 percent chance of winning out and a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs.

AFC WEEK 14 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 14 WK 15 % DIFF WIN DIV
BALTIMORE RAVENS 87.8% 97.3% 9.5% 23.6%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 49.3% 58.6% 9.3% 56.5%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 44.8% 51.8% 7.0% 44.3%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 4.2% 9.2% 5.0% 0.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 39.3% 44.2% 4.9% 42.8%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 52.6% 54.4% 1.8% 47.5%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 99.3% 99.8% 0.6% 76.4%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 99.9% 100.0% 0.1% 98.7%
BUFFALO BILLS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.3% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0%
TENNESSEE TITANS 6.5% 0.4% -6.1% 0.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 6.6% 0.3% -6.3% 0.3%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 17.9% 8.7% -9.3% 8.2%
NEW YORK JETS 91.5% 75.3% -16.2% 1.3%

NFC
The Giants benefited by playing against Tarvaris Jackson in Detroit and saw a +13 percentage point improvement. While the Eagles are still the 61 percent favorite to win the division, the Giants have a strong 67 percent chance of making the playoffs.  In preliminary simulations the Eagles are slight 52 percent favorites in simulations against the Giants in their Week 15 match-up.

San Francisco got a big win over Seattle and saw its playoff chances jump to 16 percent.  It is still third behind St. Louis at 47 percent and Seattle at 36 percent, but it is still possible the 5-8 49ers make the playoffs.  None of the NFC West teams are averaging more than 7.5 wins per simulation and it is likely the division winner will be sub-.500.

Atlanta continues to romp with an 11-2 record, and make the playoffs in 100 percent of simulations.  New Orleans only has a 28 percent chance of catching the Falcons for the division, but the Saints are nearly locks to make the playoffs at 93 percent.  Tampa Bay has had a great year but they are now 8th in the conference in playoff probability at 37 percent.

Green Bay was the big loser in the NFC with a drop from 74 to 54 percent playoff probability.  A horrible loss to Detroit and a concussion to Aaron Rodgers could cost Green Bay any chance of beating the Patriots. That has Packers fans justifiably panicking.  The Bears got blown out by the Patriots, but they were underdogs in that game with only a 40 percent chance of winning in Week 14. The Packers losing a game where they were over a 70 percent favorite is far more costly than the loss for Chicago.

NFC WEEK 14 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 14 WK 15 % DIFF WIN DIV
NEW YORK GIANTS 54.4% 67.4% 13.0% 38.7%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 3.7% 16.2% 12.6% 16.2%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 30.2% 36.9% 6.7% 0.1%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 82.3% 87.2% 4.9% 61.3%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 33.9% 36.4% 2.5% 36.4%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 91.7% 93.1% 1.5% 27.9%
ATLANTA FALCONS 99.5% 100.0% 0.5% 72.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
CAROLINA PANTHERS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DALLAS COWBOYS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DETROIT LIONS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 0.0%
CHICAGO BEARS 67.0% 61.7% -5.3% 54.3%
ST. LOUIS RAMS 62.5% 47.2% -15.3% 47.2%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 74.2% 53.7% -20.5% 45.7%