NFL Playoff Shifts After Week 11

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The Patriots still lead the AFC in playoff probability at 96.8 percent with the Jets following closely at 93.2 percent.  The Dolphins are down to just eight percent after losing at home to Chicago.  At this point the winner of the Patriots-Jets rematch in Week 13 will take the division, and the other team will end up being a Wild Card.  Currently the Patriots are a 64 percent favorite in that game simulation.  Buffalo has no chance of making the playoffs, but the Bills could play a major spoiler role playing New England in Week 16 and New York in Week 17.

The Steelers have a 94.6 percent chance of making the playoffs and the Ravens are at 90.4 percent. The Ravens though still have the 51 percent edge to win the division.  Baltimore beat Pittsburgh in Week 4 and is winning 57 percent in the Week 13 simulations.  The Browns have made significant strides this season in quality of play, but are down to under a 0.1 percent of making the playoffs.  The Bengals are having a horrifically bad season, but could also play spoiler against the Steelers in Week 14 and Ravens in Week 17.

Indianapolis lost to New England and is tied with the Jaguars at 6-4. Despite that the Colts have a 54 percent chance of winning the AFC South while Jacksonville is at 17.7 percent.  The Colts are the solid favorite in four of their remaining games and are averaging 9.6 wins per season simulation.  The Jaguars are only favored in two of their remaining games and are averaging just 8.4 wins per season simulation.  Tennessee was the biggest loser this week in the AFC losing Vince Young to injury, and nearly 15 percentage points in playoff probability.

San Diego is dominating the competition and even though it is a game behind Kansas City, the Chargers are the 69 percent favorite to win the division.  The Chargers are winning over 80 percent of simulations in their key match-ups against Oakland in Week 13 and Kansas City in Week 14.  In fact, the Chargers are favored in each of their remaining games including being a slight 52 percent favorite in Indianapolis in Week 12.  The Chiefs are favored in four of their final six games, but with tough competition for a Wild Card spot they are making the playoffs in only 21 percent of simulations. The Raiders are also expected to fade with just an 11 percent chance of making the playoffs.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 84.7% 94.6% 9.9% 48.9%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 10.8% 20.1% 9.2% 17.7%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 18.0% 26.6% 8.5% 21.1%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 84.9% 90.4% 5.4% 51.1%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 93.1% 96.8% 3.7% 54.0%
NEW YORK JETS 90.0% 93.2% 3.1% 45.3%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 70.9% 72.1% 1.3% 68.7%
BUFFALO BILLS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.7% 0.0% -0.6% 0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 1.7% 0.5% -1.2% 0.5%
HOUSTON TEXANS 5.3% 3.1% -2.2% 2.8%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 12.2% 8.0% -4.2% 0.7%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 64.8% 58.9% -5.9% 56.2%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 23.6% 11.3% -12.3% 9.7%
TENNESSEE TITANS 39.3% 24.5% -14.8% 23.4%

The Seattle Seahawks lost by 15 points in Week 11, and yet still managed to lead the NFC in increased playoff probability.  This is how it goes in the NFC West when every team loses.  The Rams and 49ers both lost at home.  Seattle has a one game lead in the division and four of its six remaining games at home.  The Seahawks are not winning more of their remaining games than St. Louis or San Francisco, but with their “commanding” one game lead, Seattle will likely make the playoffs despite averaging just 7.8 wins per simulation.

The Giants have faded significantly the past two weeks, and now have just a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs which is seventh in the NFC.  The Eagles saw their playoff chances improve +4.8 percent after beating New York at home.  The Eagles have a one game lead in the NFC East, and are actually projected to finish with a two game lead which is why they have a high 78 percent chance of winning the division.  The Giants have to root for the Cowboys who have the talent to play spoiler and still play the Eagles twice.  Washington is not consistent enough to be considered a legitimate playoff contender.

The Packers and Bears are tied in the NFC North, but Green Bay has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the division.  The Packers are favored in four of their remaining games including a key Week 17 game at home against the Bears.  Chicago has a tough remaining schedule with games against the Patriots, Jets, Packers and road games versus the Lions and Vikings.  The Bears are only favored in two of their remaining games.

Atlanta and New Orleans look like virtual locks to make the playoffs with the Falcons projected to hold on to their game lead with a 70 percent chance of winning the division.  The Buccaneers are also looking like a good Wild Card contender at 56 percent, better than the Giants at 50 percent.  The Bucs are solid favorites in three of their remaining games and a slight 51 percent favorite at home against Atlanta in Week 13.  If Tampa Bay can beat Atlanta, it they will likely make the playoffs.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 42.2% 56.6% 14.4% 56.6%
CHICAGO BEARS 28.9% 36.5% 7.6% 20.3%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 49.9% 56.2% 6.3% 7.5%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 84.7% 89.5% 4.8% 78.1%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 84.4% 88.8% 4.4% 79.6%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 1.8% 4.5% 2.7% 0.8%
ATLANTA FALCONS 90.3% 92.9% 2.6% 70.4%
DALLAS COWBOYS 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
CAROLINA PANTHERS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DETROIT LIONS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS 5.6% 4.3% -1.4% 4.2%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 83.6% 80.9% -2.7% 22.2%
ST. LOUIS RAMS 34.5% 30.1% -4.4% 30.1%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 18.5% 9.1% -9.4% 9.1%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 10.7% 0.6% -10.1% 0.1%
NEW YORK GIANTS 64.9% 50.0% -14.9% 21.1%