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2011 MLB Power Rankings: Week 4

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TheXLog.com MLB Power Rankings are published each Monday throughout the MLB season with the 30 MLB teams ranked by Net Runs. At first glance this metric (Runs Scored – Runs Against = Net Runs) may appear somewhat primitive, however, when taken into account along with other relevant factors such as current day’s starting pitchers, injuries and availability of players, weather etc., TheXLog.com MLB Power Rankings are a helpful tool in gauging probability for those who wager on MLB games (not that any of us do that.) 

At the beginning of the season, anomalies can occur in these rankings as there is simply not enough data for the math to be meaningful or valid. Over time, however, the numbers will speak for themselves and you will find that most, if not all, of the teams at the very top of the rankings will be in the postseason.

From a wagering standpoint, you will find that teams at the very top and at the very bottom of these rankings often tend to play games that are “actionable” both on the long and short side.

A few observations after one month of play.

  • The St. Louis Cardinals are in our top spot at only two games above .500. This is a result of winning the majority of their games by large margins and losing by small ones. You can look to their problems with closing games as the reason their record is not better. Monitor that situation closely, if they can fix the problem, you should be able to ride them. If not, it will be a pretty frustrating proposition trying to make any money betting on them this year.
  • The Boston Red Sox are streaking and have moved up nine spots from #27 last week to #16 this week and going 8-2 in their last ten games. Remember just two weeks ago when the sky was falling over Fenway Park? Now that was an opportunity to play them for a hot streak.
  • I don’t hear many people talking about the Florida Marlins but they moved up 10 spots this week and are also 8-2 in their last ten games. The Marlins went from -6 to +14 this week. While the Phillies get all the hype, personally, I think this is your NL East Division winner.
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers are the complete opposite of the Cardinals, they are 1 game over .500 however they have given up 14 more runs than they have scored. This means they are winning by small margins and getting crushed in their losses. This is a warning sign and an opportunity to look to bet against them in certain games.
  • The Minnesota Twins have been devastated by injuries and it shows giving up 24 more runs than they have scored. This is a team to watch on the long side if they can get healthy.
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are what they are. Unless something changes with the composition of their rosters, you should be able to make money betting against them all year long.
TheXLog.com MLB Power Rankings – Week 4
TEAM WINS LOSSES WIN % R S R A Net Runs
1Cardinals 12 10 .554 114 83 +31
2 – Rangers 14 7 .667 112 109 +30
3 – Yankees 12 6 .667 109 82 +27
4 – Phillies 15 6 .714 95 69 +26
5Indians 13 8 .619 105 80 +25
6 – Rockies 14 7 .667 106 86 +20
7 – Reds 11 11 .500 114 97 +17
8 – Marlins 13 7 .650 86 72 +14
9 – Brewers 11 10 .524 98 85 +13
10 – Athletics 11 11 .500 80 68 +12
11 – Braves 11 12 .478 87 76 +11
12 – Royals 12 10 .545 112 105 +7
13 – Angels 12 10 .545 85 80 +5
14 – Tigers 12 10 .545 100 98 +2
15 – Giants 10 11 .476 87 88 -1
16 – Red Sox 10 11 .476 92 95 -3
17.5 – Rays 11 11 .500 79 84 -5
17.5 – Blue Jays 9 12 .429 89 94 -5
19 – Nationals 10 10 .500 81 87 -6
20 – Mets 9 13 .409 99 108 -9
21 – Padres 8 14 .364 63 73 -10
22 – Dodgers 12 11 .522 95 109 -14
23 – White Sox 8 14 .364 94 110 -116
24 – Diamondbacks 8 12 .400 96 115 -19
25 – Orioles 8 12 .400 77 98 -21
26 – Cubs 10 11 .467 89 112 -23
27.5 – Twins 9 12 .429 71 95 -24
27.5 – Pirates 9 12 .429 77 101 -24
29 – Astros 8 14 .364 97 123 -26
30 – Mariners 8 15 .348 78 112 -34

 

* Please note that these rankings are an analysis of past games played and not a predictor of future events. Those who wish to wager based solely on this information do so at their own risk and understand that no specific wagering advice is being provided here.

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The founder and former owner of MC3 Sports Media, Mike Cardano is the Sr. Business Administrator for RotoExperts and the Executive Director here at TheXLog.com. You may email Mike @ [email protected] or follow him on Twitter @RotoExperts_MC3